This week’s game grades are a little spicier. The margin of victory for our top three this week — Denver, New England, and Tennessee — closely mirrored their expected score differential. But there were a lot of games this past weekend where the final score and the fundamentals told a different story. Below are the expected vs. actual score differentials, based on our game grades. Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Pittsburgh blew out their opponents, but their performances didnt grade out as dominant. Seattle and Miami both won, despite being outplayed. One word of caution in interpreting these: Game grades control for expected opponent quality, so if, hypothetically, Seattle and San Francisco each had the exact same statistical performance, we’d grade San Francisco’s performance as better, since they played a much tougher opponent. Also, apologies for the ugly table.
tm | opp | expected | actual | diff | tm | opp | expected | actual | diff | |
TB | CHI | 3.9 | 22 | -18.1 | DEN | DAL | 25.6 | 25 | 0.6 | |
OAK | NYJ | 8.6 | 25 | -16.4 | CAR | BUF | 7.9 | 6 | 1.9 | |
PIT | MIN | 5.2 | 17 | -11.8 | TEN | JAC | 23.5 | 21 | 2.5 | |
BAL | CLE | 4.4 | 14 | -9.6 | NE | NO | 18.8 | 16 | 2.8 | |
SEA | SF | -5.3 | 3 | -8.3 | NYG | DET | -11.0 | -14 | 3.0 | |
MIA | LAC | -5.9 | 2 | -7.9 | PHI | KC | -2.2 | -7 | 4.8 | |
CIN | HOU | -11.6 | -4 | -7.6 | ARI | IND | 8.0 | 3 | 5.0 | |
ATL | GB | 3.6 | 11 | -7.4 | LAR | WAS | -1.0 | -7 | 6.0 | |
WAS | LAR | 1.0 | 7 | -6.0 | GB | ATL | -3.6 | -11 | 7.4 | |
IND | ARI | -8.0 | -3 | -5.0 | HOU | CIN | 11.6 | 4 | 7.6 | |
KC | PHI | 2.2 | 7 | -4.8 | LAC | MIA | 5.9 | -2 | 7.9 | |
DET | NYG | 11.0 | 14 | -3.0 | SF | SEA | 5.3 | -3 | 8.3 | |
NO | NE | -18.8 | -16 | -2.8 | CLE | BAL | -4.4 | -14 | 9.6 | |
JAC | TEN | -23.5 | -21 | -2.5 | MIN | PIT | -5.2 | -17 | 11.8 | |
BUF | CAR | -7.9 | -6 | -1.9 | NYJ | OAK | -8.6 | -25 | 16.4 | |
DAL | DEN | -25.6 | -25 | -0.6 | CHI | TB | -3.9 | -22 | 18.1 |
Here is the full chart for the week. These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field.
# | season | tm | week | score diff |
off | def | MP | pctile rating |
exp score diff |
1 | 2017 | DEN | 2 | 25 | 2.02 | 0.70 | 2.72 | 0.985 | 14.18 |
2 | 2017 | NE | 2 | 16 | 1.83 | 0.57 | 2.40 | 0.973 | 12.55 |
3 | 2017 | TEN | 2 | 21 | 1.44 | 0.66 | 2.10 | 0.954 | 10.95 |
4 | 2017 | OAK | 2 | 25 | 1.99 | -0.71 | 1.27 | 0.846 | 6.64 |
5 | 2017 | ATL | 2 | 11 | 1.18 | -0.16 | 1.02 | 0.793 | 5.33 |
6 | 2017 | KC | 2 | 7 | 0.83 | -0.04 | 0.79 | 0.737 | 4.14 |
7 | 2017 | DET | 2 | 14 | 0.17 | 0.56 | 0.73 | 0.720 | 3.80 |
24 | 2017 | LAC | 2 | -2 | 0.60 | 0.07 | 0.67 | 0.726 | 3.50 |
9 | 2017 | HOU | 2 | 4 | -0.39 | 1.03 | 0.64 | 0.695 | 3.33 |
10 | 2017 | PHI | 2 | -7 | 0.43 | -0.06 | 0.36 | 0.613 | 1.89 |
11 | 2017 | PIT | 2 | 17 | -0.10 | 0.45 | 0.35 | 0.610 | 1.84 |
12 | 2017 | GB | 2 | -11 | 0.67 | -0.33 | 0.34 | 0.606 | 1.76 |
13 | 2017 | WAS | 2 | 7 | 0.62 | -0.38 | 0.24 | 0.575 | 1.25 |
14 | 2017 | BAL | 2 | 14 | -0.26 | 0.48 | 0.22 | 0.570 | 1.16 |
15 | 2017 | ARI | 2 | 3 | -0.37 | 0.55 | 0.18 | 0.557 | 0.95 |
16 | 2017 | CAR | 2 | 6 | -1.12 | 1.21 | 0.09 | 0.529 | 0.48 |
17 | 2017 | LAR | 2 | -7 | 0.23 | -0.19 | 0.05 | 0.514 | 0.24 |
18 | 2017 | TB | 2 | 22 | -0.47 | 0.39 | -0.08 | 0.474 | -0.41 |
19 | 2017 | SF | 2 | -3 | -0.96 | 0.88 | -0.08 | 0.473 | -0.43 |
20 | 2017 | NYJ | 2 | -25 | 0.56 | -0.94 | -0.38 | 0.380 | -1.97 |
21 | 2017 | MIA | 2 | 2 | -0.24 | -0.22 | -0.46 | 0.355 | -2.41 |
22 | 2017 | CLE | 2 | -14 | -0.63 | 0.02 | -0.62 | 0.309 | -3.22 |
23 | 2017 | MIN | 2 | -17 | -0.87 | 0.22 | -0.65 | 0.299 | -3.40 |
8 | 2017 | CHI | 2 | -22 | -0.77 | -0.05 | -0.82 | 0.234 | -4.26 |
25 | 2017 | SEA | 2 | 3 | -1.48 | 0.39 | -1.09 | 0.190 | -5.68 |
26 | 2017 | NO | 2 | -16 | -0.44 | -0.76 | -1.20 | 0.168 | -6.24 |
27 | 2017 | IND | 2 | -3 | -1.46 | 0.12 | -1.34 | 0.140 | -7.00 |
28 | 2017 | NYG | 2 | -14 | -1.31 | -0.07 | -1.38 | 0.134 | -7.19 |
29 | 2017 | BUF | 2 | -6 | -2.10 | 0.68 | -1.43 | 0.125 | -7.44 |
30 | 2017 | CIN | 2 | -4 | -1.71 | 0.13 | -1.59 | 0.100 | -8.30 |
31 | 2017 | DAL | 2 | -25 | -0.73 | -1.46 | -2.19 | 0.04 | -11.42 |
32 | 2017 | JAC | 2 | -21 | -1.61 | -0.81 | -2.41 | 0.03 | -12.60 |