Here are our “grades” for NFL Week 3. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. exp score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. pctile rating is a rating of the team’s performance, on a 0-1 scale, relative to all NFL games since 2000. MP can be interpreted as what our MP predictive rating would be for that team if we used only this one game. This is broken down into off and def numbers.
| # | season | tm | week | score diff |
off | def | MP | pctile rating |
exp score diff |
| 1 | 2016 | PHI | 3 | 31 | 0.85 | 1.68 | 2.53 | 0.978 | 13.23 |
| 2 | 2016 | DAL | 3 | 14 | 2.10 | -0.02 | 2.08 | 0.950 | 10.84 |
| 3 | 2016 | ATL | 3 | 13 | 1.85 | 0.05 | 1.90 | 0.934 | 9.90 |
| 4 | 2016 | MIN | 3 | 12 | 0.37 | 1.48 | 1.84 | 0.928 | 9.62 |
| 5 | 2016 | NE | 3 | 27 | 0.89 | 0.85 | 1.74 | 0.916 | 9.08 |
| 6 | 2016 | BUF | 3 | 15 | 0.37 | 0.86 | 1.23 | 0.835 | 6.40 |
| 7 | 2016 | SEA | 3 | 19 | 0.77 | 0.27 | 1.04 | 0.795 | 5.42 |
| 8 | 2016 | GB | 3 | 7 | 1.14 | -0.17 | 0.97 | 0.780 | 5.08 |
| 9 | 2016 | IND | 3 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.50 | 0.68 | 0.706 | 3.56 |
| 10 | 2016 | DEN | 3 | 12 | 0.58 | 0.07 | 0.66 | 0.699 | 3.42 |
| 11 | 2016 | KC | 3 | 21 | -0.44 | 1.10 | 0.66 | 0.699 | 3.42 |
| 12 | 2016 | LA | 3 | 5 | 1.10 | -0.48 | 0.62 | 0.689 | 3.24 |
| 13 | 2016 | BAL | 3 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.54 | 0.59 | 0.681 | 3.09 |
| 14 | 2016 | MIA | 3 | 6 | 0.84 | -0.59 | 0.25 | 0.580 | 1.31 |
| 15 | 2016 | WAS | 3 | 2 | 0.54 | -0.31 | 0.23 | 0.573 | 1.20 |
| 16 | 2016 | NYG | 3 | -2 | 0.27 | -0.16 | 0.10 | 0.533 | 0.53 |
| 17 | 2016 | OAK | 3 | 7 | -0.44 | 0.50 | 0.06 | 0.522 | 0.34 |
| 18 | 2016 | SD | 3 | -4 | -0.14 | 0.20 | 0.05 | 0.518 | 0.28 |
| 19 | 2016 | DET | 3 | -7 | 0.68 | -0.90 | -0.21 | 0.435 | -1.10 |
| 20 | 2016 | CLE | 3 | -6 | 0.23 | -0.52 | -0.29 | 0.411 | -1.50 |
| 21 | 2016 | TB | 3 | -5 | 0.75 | -1.15 | -0.40 | 0.378 | -2.07 |
| 22 | 2016 | JAC | 3 | -2 | -0.56 | -0.02 | -0.58 | 0.323 | -3.05 |
| 23 | 2016 | TEN | 3 | -7 | -1.10 | 0.48 | -0.63 | 0.311 | -3.27 |
| 24 | 2016 | CIN | 3 | -12 | -0.19 | -0.49 | -0.68 | 0.297 | -3.53 |
| 25 | 2016 | NYJ | 3 | -21 | -1.55 | 0.41 | -1.14 | 0.184 | -5.96 |
| 26 | 2016 | SF | 3 | -19 | -0.86 | -0.31 | -1.18 | 0.177 | -6.14 |
| 27 | 2016 | NO | 3 | -13 | 0.23 | -1.45 | -1.22 | 0.169 | -6.35 |
| 28 | 2016 | ARI | 3 | -15 | -0.87 | -0.89 | -1.76 | 0.082 | -9.20 |
| 29 | 2016 | CHI | 3 | -14 | -0.22 | -1.62 | -1.84 | 0.073 | -9.60 |
| 30 | 2016 | CAR | 3 | -12 | -1.44 | -0.59 | -2.04 | 0.054 | -10.63 |
| 31 | 2016 | PIT | 3 | -31 | -1.46 | -0.70 | -2.17 | 0.043 | -11.32 |
| 32 | 2016 | HOU | 3 | -27 | -1.26 | -1.00 | -2.26 | 0.037 | -11.81 |
