Nice to be back in the win column! Excellent week last week, going 1-0 on Big Plays and 6-1 on Other Plays. There’s obviously some positive variance in there, but I’ll take it; we had more than our share of negative variance the week before. Once again on primarily underdogs this week. In my opinion, the most interesting game from a betting perspective is Jacksonville/Seattle, which at one points was lined as high as 20. What’s interesting about that is how rare it is. There have only been 9 instances of favorites of 20+ points since 1978 (as far back as my database goes). The record of favorites in those games: 1-8.
Here are this week’s plays. Play lines are widely available at major sportsbooks as of 2:50pm EDT on Wednesday. As always, injuries (except to QBs) are not taken into account.
Big Plays (3-1 YTD)
- San Diego +3 at Tennessee [MP= -1.7]
Other Plays (6-5 YTD)
- Jacksonville +19 at Seattle [MP= +15.3]
- Baltimore +2.5 vs. Houston [MP= -0.8]
- Indianapolis +10.5 at San Francisco [MP= +7.4]