Week 4 Recap:
Week 4 was light on official plays, but had five games that made our unofficial Break-Even or Better listing. Our Big Plays went 1-1. The New York Giants (+4) benefitted from a third-quarter Kirk Cousins clinic on how not to be an NFL quarterback and embarrassed my Redskins 45-14. The Bears (+1.5) could not figure out how to stop Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense at all on Sunday, and the back-and-forth game turned lopsided when Jay Cutler played like vintage Jay Cutler. Our one Other Play was also a loser, as Atlanta (-3) lost as a road favorite to rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater and the Adrien Peterson-less Vikings.
After Sunday afternoon’s games, when Buffalo (+3), Pittsburgh (-7.5), and Carolina (+3.5) all lost, I was afraid our BEOB selections might never win again. That’s when the Cowboys (+3), to everyone’s surprise, ran away with a convincing victory against the Saints, and the Chiefs (+3.5) did the same to the Patriots.
Despite the poor record, the market agreed with our picks:
- New York Giants: picked +4, closed +3.25, CLV +0.75
- Chicago: picked +1.5, closed +1.5, CLV 0.0
- Atlanta: picked -3, closed -5.5, CLV +2.5
- *Buffalo: picked +3, closed +2.5, CLV +0.5
- *Carolina : picked +3.5, closed +3, CLV +0.5
- *Pittsburgh: picked -7.5, closed -7, CLV -0.5
- *Dallas: picked +3, closed +3, CLV 0.0
- *Kansas City: picked +3.5, closed +3, CLV +0.5
Week 5 Picks:
This week’s picks are based on Vegas Insider consensus lines as of 1:15pm Vegas time on Wednesday. As usual, we do not account for matchup factors or injuries (except QB). M-P lines are based on M-P ratings and a standard home field advantage, as well as adjustments for extra rest (byes and Thursday games).
Break-Even or Better selections should cover the spread between 52.5% and 54% on the time, our Other Plays 54%-55%, and our Big Plays should win more than 55% of the time. Our estimate for each game is based on our line for the game, regressed appropriately towards the market number, as well as the value of different points. How much we weight the market’s number is based on the historical predictive power of the closing line relative to our line. This makes our estimates conservative, since we generally expect lines to move in our direction.
Big Plays (7-3 YTD)
- no big plays this week
Other Plays (2-2 YTD)
- Dallas -6 vs. Houston [MP Line: DAL -9.0]
- Buffalo +7 at Detroit [MP Line: BUF +4.9]
Break-Even or Better (3-7 YTD)
- Atlanta +4 at New York Giants [MP Line: ATL +2.1]
- Kansas City +6 at San Francisco [MP Line: KC +4.0]
Our lines (mean forecast, not median!) on the remaining games:
- Green Bay -8.6 vs. Minnesota
- Carolina -1.6 vs. Chicago
- Tennessee -2.4 vs. Cleveland
- Philadelphia -6.4 vs. St. Louis
- New Orleans -12.2 vs. Tampa Bay
- Indianapolis -2.8 vs. Baltimore
- Pittsburgh -7.5 at Jacksonville
- Denver -8.6 vs. Arizona (assumes 50% probability of Palmer starting)
- San Diego -5.9 vs. NY Jets
- Cincinnati -1.4 at New England
- Seattle -9.0 at Washington
