Week 8 Recap:
A solid week, going 2-1 on our official plays last week. And finally we managed to win some Break-Even or Better plays, going 2-0 on those. Baltimore (Pk) lost a heartbreaker at Cincinnati. Baltimore rallied from an 11-point second-half deficit to take the lead, only for Cincy to answer with a late TD. Still, it seemed Baltimore might pull it out, but an offensive pass interference penalty wiped out the would-be go-ahead TD. Buffalo (+3), without its top two running backs (Side note: how many times have I said WRs and RBs are the most replaceable positions) got the easy win and cover against the Jets. Miami (-6) pulled away from Jacksonville in the second hlaf, winning 27-13.
Our leans were both underdogs who lost but still covered: Carolina (+5) lost 13-9 and Atlanta (+3.5) fell 22-21.
Week 8 Closing Line Value
- Baltimore: picked 0, closed -2.75, CLV +2.75
- Buffalo: picked +3, closed +3, CLV 0.0
- Miami: picked -6, closed -7, CLV +1.0
- *Carolina: picked +5, closed +6, CLV -1.0
- *Atlanta: picked +3.5, closed +3.25, CLV +0.25
Week 9 Picks:
Play criteria remains the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Break-Even or Better (52.5-54%). In determining our edge, we regress the MP line towards the market number, based on the historical predictive power of the closing line relative to our number. Since the mid-week line is less efficient than the closing line, I expect these estimates to be conservative.
This week’s picks are based on Vegas Insider consensus lines as of 9:45am Vegas time on Thursday. As usual, we do not account for matchup factors or injuries (except QB). MP lines are based on MP ratings, a standard home field advantage, as well as adjustments for extra rest (byes and Thursday games).
Big Plays (9.5-5-0.5 YTD)
- Miami -1.5 vs. San Diego [MP Line: MIA -4.1]
- Baltimore Pk at Pittsburgh [MP Line: BAL -3.6]
Other Plays (5-3 YTD)
- Washington Pk at Minnesota [MP Line: WAS -2.7]
Break-Even or Better (6-13 YTD)
- none this week
MP Lines (means, not medians) for remaining games:
- New Orleans -2.1 at Carolina
- Cincinnati -11.2 vs. Jacksonville
- Cleveland -8.3 vs. Tampa Bay
- Philadelphia -0.3 at Houston
- Kansas City -10.6 vs. New York Jets
- Dallas -5 vs. Arizona (assumes Romo plays)
- Indianapolis -2.9 at New York Giants
- San Francisco -10.2 vs. St. Louis
- Denver -3.2 at New England
- Seattle -15.6 vs. Oakland
