Week 9 Recap:
A small-volume, losing week in the NFL last week (1-2). We were on the right side of one of the two blowouts, and on the wrong side of the one close game. Miami (-1.5) surprised everyone in how thoroughly they dominated the San Diego, winning 37-0. As much as I’d like to say ‘yeah, we saw that one coming’, Massey-Peabody only made Miami a 4.1-point favorite. On the other extreme, our second consecutive week backing Baltimore (Pk) at a pick line resulted in a second loss. Pittsburgh took advantage of a depleted Ravens secondary and won convincingly, 43-23. Still, the Ravens remain near the top of the MP ratings and Pittsburgh barely crosses into positive territory. That’s the NFL for you…any given Sunday. Our one Other Play–Redskins (Pk)–felt like two losses, since I’m a lifelong
masochist Redskin fan. Yes, RG3 had an inconsistent game, but the real reason the Redskins lost was their inability to stop the Vikings’ pedestrian offense in the second half.
Week 9 Closing Line Value
Last week was a wash in terms of line move value. Big move against us in the BAL/PIT game and small moves our way in WAS/MIN and MIA/SD.
- Miami: picked -1.5, closed -2.75, CLV +1.25
- Baltimore: picked 0, closed +2.25, CLV -2.25
- Washington: picked 0, closed -1 CLV +1.0
Week 10 Picks:
Play criteria remain the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Break-Even or Better (52.5-54%). These numbers are conservative, since we regress the MP line towards the market number, and base the magnitude of that regression on the predictive value of the MP line relative to the closing line. And as you surely know, the closing line is more efficient than the mid-week line. Our Big Plays and Other Plays, just like in previous seasons, are considered “official plays”. Last year, we started adding BEOB games, which–unlike our college MP Leans–are a broader category that include any game we expect will have positive expected value for a bettor, even if it’s one-tenth of a percent. Needless to say, we expect them to perform better than the 6-13 mark they hold this season (our expectation–conservatively–would be 10-9).
Massey-Peabody lines are determined by taking the difference in team ratings, adding a standard home-field advantage, and adjusting for extra rest (byes and Thursday games). Picks are based on Vegas Insider consensus lines as of 10:20am PST.
Big Plays (10.5-5-0.5 YTD)
- Atlanta -2.5 at Tampa Bay [MP Line: ATL -6.1]
- Miami +2.5/+3* at Detroit [MP Line: MIA -1.0]
Other Plays (5-4 YTD)
- Baltimore -9.5 vs. Tennessee [MP Line: BAL -12.5]
- New York Jets +4.5 at Pittsburgh [MP Line: NYJ +2.6]
Break-Even or Better (6-13 YTD)
- no plays this week
MP Lines (means, not medians!) for remaining games:
- Cincinnati -6.4 vs. Cleveland
- **Dallas -10.6 vs. Jacksonville (neutral field; assumes Romo is healthy)
- Kansas City -0.4 at Buffalo
- New Orleans -6.7 vs. San Francisco
- Denver -11.5 at Oakland
- Arizona -8.0 vs. St. Louis
- Seattle -10.0 vs. New York Giants
- Green Bay -7.2 vs. Chicago
- Philadelphia -5.1 vs. Carolina
*We are grading half of the MIA play at the line of +2.5, and half of it at the line of +3.
**Since there’s no true market on this game yet, we’re not classifying it as a play.