Last week we were 4-3, splitting our Big Plays and hitting 3 of the 5 Other Plays. With two weeks of games in now we have an initial look at opponent strength, so the model’s at least covering all the bases.
Remember we do not consider injuries unless we explicitly say so (and that’s quite rare). On the other hand, our priors for the season now do include consideration for the starting QB – priors are weaker for rookies, etc. As always, we do this purely quantitatively, based on history. Betting lines are from Covers.com as of Tuesday night.
Big Plays (4-3 YTD)
Car (+1) vs NYG [MP= -3.5]
Other Plays (3-2 YTD)
Ari (+4) vs Phi [MP= +0.9]
NO (-9) vs KC [MP= -12.1]
NE (+3) at Bal [MP= +0.03]
Mia (+3) vs NYJ [MP= +0.6]
Min (+7) vs SF [MP= +4.9]
If you want to be aggressive, there are a number of games with edges just below our 2-point cutoff. We have Detroit -4.99 at Tennessee (line is 03), Cincy +1.59 at Washington (line is +3.5), and Atlanta +1.15 at San Diego (line is +3). Historically we’ve been at our best early in the season, so being more aggressive with these edges makes some sense.