Last week was the best of the season, hitting 5 of 7 picks, including all 3 of our Big Plays. For the season we are up to 15-9-1 (62.5%). And, nice bit, we’ve been on the positive side of the ledger every week.
Smaller slate this week so we’re being a little aggressive with our thresholds. Especially happy to do that early in the season, where our models perform relatively better. This week’s “Big Plays” are games with edges greater than 3.6 points, while “Other Plays” are those with edges between 1.9 and 3.6 points.
Usual caveats – we don’t consider injuries, weather, matchups, etc. Pointspreads are from Bookmaker, via sbrodds.com, as of the past hour.
Big Plays (7-4 YTD)
MIN -5.5 vs Ten [MP= -9.69]
BAL -5 at KC [MP= -8.66]
Other Plays (8-5-1 YTD)
ARI -1.5 at STL [MP= -3.56]
SEA +3 at Car [MP= +1.02]
JAC +5.5 vs Chi [MP= +3.58]
We hit our “below threshold” suggestion again last week, with Denver blowing out Oakland. Little tougher this week since we already dropped down and picked up the 1.98-point and 1.93-point games. But if you really want another pick, next on the list is SF -9.5 vs. Buffalo. We have that game at -11.27, so an edge of 1.77 points. Also nice to be just under the 10-point line.