Apologies for the late post. Here is my full ensemble of predictions, using both Massey-Peabody numbers and player model numbers for this weekend’s games. We’ll also give our un-regressed cover probabilities, as well as cover probabilities regressing 50% to the market number. Remember that the lines we give are means, which don’t take into account the distribution. The means and medians don’t necessarily match up, especially around key numbers (3 & 7, for instance). For example, a MP mean line of -1.35 corresponds to a median of -2.5, while a mean line of -4.1 corresponds to a median line of -3.5.
- Indianapolis at Houston
- MP Line: HOU -1.7
- Player Model Line: HOU -2.5
- Combo Line: HOU -1.9
- Market Line: HOU -2
- Houston -2 (53.3% raw cover probability, 51.6% regressed to market)
- No official play
- Seattle at Dallas
- MP Line: DAL -0.3
- Player Model Line: DAL -2.9
- Combo Line: DAL -1.3
- Market Line: DAL -2.5
- Seattle +2.5 (50.1% raw cover probability, 50.0% regressed to market)
- No official play
- LA Chargers at Baltimore
- MP Line: BAL -0.4
- Player Model Line: LAC -0.7
- Combo Line: LAC -0.1
- Current market: BAL -2.5/-3. Pinnacle is dealing -2.5 -120/+107. Cris has -3 -101/-119. Vegas Insider consensus is -3 +100/-120, though Vegas seems to have a good mix of -2.5 -120 and -3 +100. These are roughly equivalent, as I make the half-point worth ~20 cents.
- LAC +2.5 +100 (55.1% raw cover probability, 51.5% regressed to non-vig market price of +2.5 +110)
- LAC +3 -120 (60.7% raw cover probability, 56.4% regressed to non-vig market price of +3 -110)
- PICK: LAC +2.5/+3: We’ll grade this like an Asian handicap. Both +2.5 +100 and +3 -120 show an edge.
- Philadelphia at Chicago
- MP Line: CHI -6.5
- Player Model Line: CHI -3.1
- Combo Line: CHI -5.2
- Market Line: CHI -6.5
- Philadelphia +6.5 (55.5% raw cover probability, 52.8% regressed to market)
- No official play, though we think +6.5 -110 shows a very small edge (0.8% expected ROI).