The NFL season is finally here and, despite some misgivings, we’re going to continue to post weekly NFL picks. As you may recall from previous seasons, we do not factor in offseason roster transactions in our ratings; in fact, individual players (and coaches) are not considered at all with the exception of quarterback. Still, we’ve done quite well early in the season in years past, since the market tends to overreact to the “winners” and “losers” of the offseason, while also not adequately regressing to the mean. As a lifelong Redskin fan, I can tell you firsthand that perennially winning the offseason just means I get more depressed when they end up stinking.
There’s not a lot of value out there for week 1, as the lines have been up for quite some time now, but we still have big edges on a few games. A theme here is that we’re betting on bad defenses. That should come as no surprise, as defense is much less consistent from year-to-year than offense.
Pick criteria remain the same as last year: Big Plays should cover at least 55% of the time and Other Plays should cover 54-55%. If there’s a game that almost qualifies as an Other Play, I may list it as an MP Lean. Lines are consensus lines as of 9:55am PDT on Thursday morning.
Big Plays (0-0 YTD)
- Atlanta +3/+2.5 vs. Philadelphia [MP Line: ATL -2.4]
- San Francisco +2.5 vs. Minnesota [MP Line: SF -4.1]
Other Plays (0-0 YTD)
- Chicago +6.5/+7 vs. Green Bay [MP Line: CHI +4.5]
- New Orleans +2.5 at Arizona [MP Line: NO -0.7]