Caught a bit of a break with Indy’s epic comeback, enabling us to salvage a split (1-1) on our¬†Other Plays. But we were pretty unlucky in the Buffalo/KC game. Despite out-gaining KC 470-210 (6.1-3.9 in yards/play), Buffalo managed to lose by 10. Having Jeff Tuel starting instead of Thad Lewis certainly didn’t help our cause (yes, it’s possible to have a starting QB worse than Thad Lewis). Tuel was responsible for the rare play costing his team more than 10 points, throwing a 100-yard pick-6, one of two Chiefs’ defensive touchdowns. Get ready for all the talk in the national media about how the Chiefs “know how to win”. It’s pretty simple: the Chiefs continue to get lucky, and people, mistaking a random process for something nonrandom, generate a narrative to explain the Chiefs’ continued success. Just another example of psychological biases in the real world.
Our¬†Break-Even or Better¬†picks went 3-2, with the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets winning outright as a 6-point dog, the Bears beating a Rodgers-less Green Bay squad as a 10.5-point dog, and the surging Carolina Panthers beating Atlanta by 24. On the losing side, St. Louis lost by 7 as a 3-point dog, and San Diego, obviously still haunted by the ghost of Norv Turner, blew 3 chances inside the 1-yard line in the final 20 seconds of regulation, and fell in overtime (which, as a Redskin fan, I’m very happy about).
A few injury situations to to deal with this week. Our ratings are based on the following QBs starting: Seneca Wallace (GB), Jay Cutler (CHI), and E.J. Manuel (BUF). If you’re wondering, Cutler is worth 2.9 points over McCown, Manuel is worth 2.1 points over Tuel, and Rodgers is worth 4.3 points over Wallace.
A lot of plays on the docket this week! Lines are widely available as of 12:10am EST on Tuesday night.  As usual, we do not consider injuries (except QB) or matchup factors; the lines are based purely on our ratings, plus home-field advantage, and an adjustment for teams coming off of byes and Thursday games.
Big Plays (7-5-1 YTD)
- Arizona -2.5 vs. Houston [MP= -7.1] (lines range from -1 -130 to -3 +100; this is still a big play even at a flat -3)
- Green Bay -1.5 vs. Philadelphia [MP= -6.0]
- Dallas +7 at New Orleans [MP= +2.7]
- Carolina +6 at San Francisco [MP= +2.6]
Other Plays (21-14 YTD)
- Minnesota +2.5 vs. Washington [MP= -2.3]
- Cincinnati -1 at Baltimore [MP= -3.5]
- Atlanta +6 vs. Seattle [MP= +3.3]
Break-Even or Better (8-6 YTD)
- San Diego +7 vs. Denver [MP= +5.1]
