Another solid week for our NFL picks, and would’ve been even better if not for my brain fart with Jacksonville playing in London (and not at home). Still, Big Plays went 2-1, Other Plays went 2-1, and our one Break-Even or Better pick won. For the year, we are now 27-18-1 (60%) on our picks, and 32-22-1 (59.3%) if you include BEOB. Not bad, since apparently no other quantitative systems are winning this year.
Light week this week. Only two plays, but a number of leans that make it into the BEOB category. Lines are widely available as of 1pm EDT on Wednesday. As usual, we do not consider injuries (except QB) or matchup factors; the lines are based purely on our ratings, plus home-field advantage, and an adjustment for teams coming off of byes and Thursday games.
Big Plays (7-5-1 YTD)
- none this week
Other Plays (20-13 YTD)
- Buffalo +3 at Kansas City [MP= -0.3]
- Indianapolis -2.5 at Houston [MP= -4.5]
Break-Even or Better (5-4 YTD)
- Carolina -7.5 vs. Atlanta [MP= -10.3]
- St. Louis +2.5 (+100) / +3 (-120) vs. Tennessee [MP= -0.2]
- San Diego -1 at Washington [MP= -2.4]
- Chicago +10.5 at Green Bay [MP= +9.0]
- New York Jets +6 vs. New Orleans [MP= +4.4]