Here are our “grades” for the second week of the college season. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. So Louisville was fundamentally 33 points better than an average team based on how they played against Syracuse. pctile rating is a rating of the team’s performance, on a 0-1 scale, relative to all FBS games over the last ten years. So Louisville’s performance last week was better than 98.1% of team-game performances over the last 10 years.
# | season | week | tm | opp | tm score |
opp score |
pctile rating |
score diff |
1 | 2016 | 2 | Louisville | Syracuse | 62 | 28 | 0.981 | 33.0 |
2 | 2016 | 2 | Mississippi State | South Carolina | 27 | 14 | 0.943 | 25.2 |
3 | 2016 | 2 | Auburn | Arkansas State | 51 | 14 | 0.931 | 23.6 |
4 | 2016 | 2 | North Carolina | Illinois | 48 | 23 | 0.927 | 23.2 |
5 | 2016 | 2 | Ohio State | Tulsa | 48 | 3 | 0.920 | 22.4 |
6 | 2016 | 2 | Iowa | Iowa State | 42 | 3 | 0.914 | 21.7 |
7 | 2016 | 2 | Air Force | Georgia State | 48 | 14 | 0.909 | 21.2 |
8 | 2016 | 2 | Miami (FL) | Florida Atlantic | 38 | 10 | 0.881 | 18.8 |
9 | 2016 | 2 | Florida | Kentucky | 45 | 7 | 0.881 | 18.8 |
10 | 2016 | 2 | Alabama | Western Kentucky | 38 | 10 | 0.860 | 17.2 |
11 | 2016 | 2 | Oklahoma | Louisiana-Monroe | 59 | 17 | 0.852 | 16.7 |
12 | 2016 | 2 | Wisconsin | Akron | 54 | 10 | 0.836 | 15.6 |
13 | 2016 | 2 | USC | Utah State | 45 | 7 | 0.833 | 15.4 |
14 | 2016 | 2 | Boston College | Massachusetts | 26 | 7 | 0.831 | 15.3 |
15 | 2016 | 2 | Tennessee | Virginia Tech | 45 | 24 | 0.814 | 14.2 |
16 | 2016 | 2 | Texas | UTEP | 41 | 7 | 0.808 | 13.9 |
17 | 2016 | 2 | Maryland | Florida International | 41 | 14 | 0.804 | 13.6 |
18 | 2016 | 2 | Troy | Clemson | 24 | 30 | 0.789 | 12.8 |
19 | 2016 | 2 | Washington | Idaho | 59 | 14 | 0.785 | 12.6 |
20 | 2016 | 2 | Notre Dame | Nevada | 39 | 10 | 0.783 | 12.5 |
21 | 2016 | 2 | Wake Forest | Duke | 24 | 14 | 0.777 | 12.1 |
22 | 2016 | 2 | Pittsburgh | Penn State | 42 | 39 | 0.773 | 12.0 |
23 | 2016 | 2 | Georgia Southern | South Alabama | 24 | 9 | 0.738 | 10.2 |
24 | 2016 | 2 | Ohio | Kansas | 37 | 21 | 0.738 | 10.2 |
25 | 2016 | 2 | Cincinnati | Purdue | 38 | 20 | 0.736 | 10.1 |
26 | 2016 | 2 | South Florida | Northern Illinois | 48 | 17 | 0.726 | 9.6 |
27 | 2016 | 2 | North Carolina State | East Carolina | 30 | 33 | 0.721 | 9.3 |
28 | 2016 | 2 | Navy | Connecticut | 28 | 24 | 0.719 | 9.3 |
29 | 2016 | 2 | Washington State | Boise State | 28 | 31 | 0.717 | 9.1 |
30 | 2016 | 2 | TCU | Arkansas | 38 | 41 | 0.704 | 8.6 |
31 | 2016 | 2 | San Diego State | California | 45 | 40 | 0.681 | 7.5 |
32 | 2016 | 2 | Michigan | UCF | 51 | 14 | 0.678 | 7.4 |
33 | 2016 | 2 | Arkansas | TCU | 41 | 38 | 0.669 | 7.0 |
34 | 2016 | 2 | Arizona State | Texas Tech | 68 | 55 | 0.669 | 7.0 |
35 | 2016 | 2 | Virginia Tech | Tennessee | 24 | 45 | 0.658 | 6.5 |
36 | 2016 | 2 | Brigham Young | Utah | 19 | 20 | 0.619 | 4.8 |
37 | 2016 | 2 | Central Michigan | Oklahoma State | 30 | 27 | 0.611 | 4.5 |
38 | 2016 | 2 | Oregon | Virginia | 44 | 26 | 0.611 | 4.5 |
39 | 2016 | 2 | Utah | Brigham Young | 20 | 19 | 0.595 | 3.8 |
40 | 2016 | 2 | Penn State | Pittsburgh | 39 | 42 | 0.587 | 3.5 |
41 | 2016 | 2 | Western Kentucky | Alabama | 10 | 38 | 0.576 | 3.0 |
42 | 2016 | 2 | Vanderbilt | Middle Tennessee | 47 | 24 | 0.574 | 3.0 |
43 | 2016 | 2 | Virginia | Oregon | 26 | 44 | 0.573 | 2.9 |
44 | 2016 | 2 | Missouri | Eastern Michigan | 61 | 21 | 0.553 | 2.1 |
45 | 2016 | 2 | Colorado State | UTSA | 23 | 14 | 0.550 | 2.0 |
46 | 2016 | 2 | Nebraska | Wyoming | 52 | 17 | 0.546 | 1.8 |
47 | 2016 | 2 | Baylor | Southern Methodist | 40 | 13 | 0.545 | 1.8 |
48 | 2016 | 2 | Army | Rice | 31 | 14 | 0.538 | 1.5 |
49 | 2016 | 2 | Boise State | Washington State | 31 | 28 | 0.535 | 1.4 |
50 | 2016 | 2 | Southern Methodist | Baylor | 13 | 40 | 0.522 | 0.9 |
51 | 2016 | 2 | Texas Tech | Arizona State | 55 | 68 | 0.516 | 0.6 |
52 | 2016 | 2 | Wyoming | Nebraska | 17 | 52 | 0.513 | 0.5 |
53 | 2016 | 2 | California | San Diego State | 40 | 45 | 0.486 | -0.6 |
54 | 2016 | 2 | Ball State | Indiana | 20 | 30 | 0.483 | -0.7 |
55 | 2016 | 2 | UCLA | UNLV | 42 | 21 | 0.479 | -0.8 |
56 | 2016 | 2 | UNLV | UCLA | 21 | 42 | 0.453 | -1.9 |
57 | 2016 | 2 | Appalachian State | Old Dominion | 31 | 7 | 0.453 | -1.9 |
58 | 2016 | 2 | UCF | Michigan | 14 | 51 | 0.443 | -2.3 |
59 | 2016 | 2 | Clemson | Troy | 30 | 24 | 0.425 | -3.0 |
60 | 2016 | 2 | Middle Tennessee | Vanderbilt | 24 | 47 | 0.389 | -4.5 |
61 | 2016 | 2 | Oklahoma State | Central Michigan | 27 | 30 | 0.388 | -4.5 |
62 | 2016 | 2 | Indiana | Ball State | 30 | 20 | 0.383 | -4.8 |
63 | 2016 | 2 | East Carolina | North Carolina State | 33 | 30 | 0.330 | -7.0 |
64 | 2016 | 2 | Nevada | Notre Dame | 10 | 39 | 0.319 | -7.5 |
65 | 2016 | 2 | New Mexico | New Mexico State | 31 | 32 | 0.309 | -7.9 |
66 | 2016 | 2 | Old Dominion | Appalachian State | 7 | 31 | 0.295 | -8.6 |
67 | 2016 | 2 | Northern Illinois | South Florida | 17 | 48 | 0.293 | -8.7 |
68 | 2016 | 2 | Tulsa | Ohio State | 3 | 48 | 0.284 | -9.1 |
69 | 2016 | 2 | Kentucky | Florida | 7 | 45 | 0.248 | -10.8 |
70 | 2016 | 2 | Duke | Wake Forest | 14 | 24 | 0.234 | -11.6 |
71 | 2016 | 2 | Utah State | USC | 7 | 45 | 0.201 | -13.4 |
72 | 2016 | 2 | Rice | Army | 14 | 31 | 0.199 | -13.5 |
73 | 2016 | 2 | New Mexico State | New Mexico | 32 | 31 | 0.198 | -13.6 |
74 | 2016 | 2 | Purdue | Cincinnati | 20 | 38 | 0.181 | -14.5 |
75 | 2016 | 2 | South Carolina | Mississippi State | 14 | 27 | 0.177 | -14.8 |
76 | 2016 | 2 | Eastern Michigan | Missouri | 21 | 61 | 0.169 | -15.3 |
77 | 2016 | 2 | Idaho | Washington | 14 | 59 | 0.163 | -15.6 |
78 | 2016 | 2 | Iowa State | Iowa | 3 | 42 | 0.158 | -16.0 |
79 | 2016 | 2 | Connecticut | Navy | 24 | 28 | 0.147 | -16.8 |
80 | 2016 | 2 | Illinois | North Carolina | 23 | 48 | 0.138 | -17.4 |
81 | 2016 | 2 | South Alabama | Georgia Southern | 9 | 24 | 0.115 | -19.1 |
82 | 2016 | 2 | Syracuse | Louisville | 28 | 62 | 0.111 | -19.5 |
83 | 2016 | 2 | Akron | Wisconsin | 10 | 54 | 0.108 | -19.7 |
84 | 2016 | 2 | Arkansas State | Auburn | 14 | 51 | 0.102 | -20.2 |
85 | 2016 | 2 | Louisiana-Monroe | Oklahoma | 17 | 59 | 0.102 | -20.3 |
86 | 2016 | 2 | UTEP | Texas | 7 | 41 | 0.088 | -21.5 |
87 | 2016 | 2 | Florida Atlantic | Miami (FL) | 10 | 38 | 0.079 | -22.5 |
88 | 2016 | 2 | Massachusetts | Boston College | 7 | 26 | 0.071 | -23.5 |
89 | 2016 | 2 | UTSA | Colorado State | 14 | 23 | 0.061 | -24.6 |
90 | 2016 | 2 | Florida International | Maryland | 14 | 41 | 0.054 | -25.7 |
91 | 2016 | 2 | Georgia State | Air Force | 14 | 48 | 0.037 | -28.5 |
92 | 2016 | 2 | Kansas | Ohio | 21 | 37 | 0.020 | -32.7 |