Divisional Lines

Here is my full ensemble of predictions, using both Massey-Peabody numbers and player model numbers, for this weekend’s games. We’ll also give our un-regressed cover probabilities, as well as cover probabilities regressing 50% to the market number. Remember that the lines we give are means, which don’t take into account the distribution. The means and…

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Wild Card Lines

Apologies for the late post. Here is my full ensemble of predictions, using both Massey-Peabody numbers and player model numbers for this weekend’s games. We’ll also give our un-regressed cover probabilities, as well as cover probabilities regressing 50% to the market number. Remember that the lines we give are means, which don’t take into account…

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2018 NFL Week 17 Picks

Following a 3-3 week, we look to wrap up a disappointing regular season for our MP picks on a strong note. For Week 17, we will NOT be posting picks on games where a team is locked into a specific seed and has no incentive to little to no incentive to play its starters. Here…

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2018 NFL Week 16 Picks

Last week we were a disappointing 2-4. Here are our lines and picks for the week, based on Massey-Peabody ratings, adjusting for HFA and QB injuries. It does not factor in my player-level model. Also note that these are our model lines and are not regressed to the market. Tennessee -9.6 vs. Washington LA Chargers…

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2018 NFL Week 15 Picks

We continue to hover around .500 after a 2-3 week. Here are this week’s MP lines and picks: Kansas City -3.2 vs. LA Chargers Houston -3.1 at NY Jets PICK: NY JETS +6.5 Denver -7.5 vs. Cleveland PICK: DENVER -2.5 Minnesota -6.4 vs. Miami Oakland -0.1 at Cincinnati PICK: OAKLAND +3 Baltimore -8.9 vs. Tampa…

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2018 NFL Week 14 Picks

A 4-1 record last week gets us back over .500. This week we have five plays, but also another four that barely miss the threshold. Here’s what we’ve got: Tennessee -1.4 vs. Jacksonville (uses Kessler at QB) PICK: JACKSONVILLE +5.5 Kansas City -7.3 vs. Baltimore Houston -3.4 vs. Indianapolis Carolina -5.4 at Cleveland PICK: CAROLINA…

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2018 NFL Week 13 Picks

Here are this week’s Massey-Peabody picks: New Orleans -5.8 vs. Dallas Indianapolis -0.2 at Jacksonville (uses Kessler at QB) PICK: JACKSONVILLE +4 Pittsburgh -2.7 vs. LA Chargers Carolina -6.0 at Tampa Bay PICK: CAROLINA -3/-3.5 Atlanta -2.7 vs. Baltimore (uses Jackson at QB) Houston -7.2 vs. Cleveland Miami -5.3 vs. Buffalo Chicago -4.0 at NY…

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