2019 Bowl Confidence Pool
Our numbers for the 2019 bowls. We have not adjusted for players sitting out, suspensions, etc. mp confidence pool for posting
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(No) 2019 NFL Picks
We’re getting out of the pick-posting business. Rufus explained why on his Twitter feed September 8. Quoting @RufusPeabody here… “Not blogging @MasseyPeabody NFL plays this year. Why? It’s one input to my betting but not the only one. It doesn’t feel right to give out a ‘model play’ on, for example, the Bengals, while I’m…
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We haven’t seen peak SEC yet
A good sim should occasionally surprise you. Especially with something as complex and uncertain as a college football playoff season, it’s more or less impossible to see how all the parts fit together ahead of time without one. Alabama and Clemson are pretty straightforward, sure, but what about the other 128 teams? And in what…
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CFB 2019
Quick few updates on CFB this season… We intend to post top-35 power rankings as we have the last few years. We’ll get the site updated in the next day or three. Meantime we’ll get some numbers out on Twitter. We’re still tweaking our models right now so will continue to refine our numbers for…
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Divisional Lines
Here is my full ensemble of predictions, using both Massey-Peabody numbers and player model numbers, for this weekend’s games. We’ll also give our un-regressed cover probabilities, as well as cover probabilities regressing 50% to the market number. Remember that the lines we give are means, which don’t take into account the distribution. The means and…
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Wild Card Lines
Apologies for the late post. Here is my full ensemble of predictions, using both Massey-Peabody numbers and player model numbers for this weekend’s games. We’ll also give our un-regressed cover probabilities, as well as cover probabilities regressing 50% to the market number. Remember that the lines we give are means, which don’t take into account…
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2018 NFL Week 17 Picks
Following a 3-3 week, we look to wrap up a disappointing regular season for our MP picks on a strong note. For Week 17, we will NOT be posting picks on games where a team is locked into a specific seed and has no incentive to little to no incentive to play its starters. Here…
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2018 NFL Week 16 Picks
Last week we were a disappointing 2-4. Here are our lines and picks for the week, based on Massey-Peabody ratings, adjusting for HFA and QB injuries. It does not factor in my player-level model. Also note that these are our model lines and are not regressed to the market. Tennessee -9.6 vs. Washington LA Chargers…
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We continue to hover around .500 after a 2-3 week. Here are this week’s MP lines and picks: Kansas City -3.2 vs. LA Chargers Houston -3.1 at NY Jets PICK: NY JETS +6.5 Denver -7.5 vs. Cleveland PICK: DENVER -2.5 Minnesota -6.4 vs. Miami Oakland -0.1 at Cincinnati PICK: OAKLAND +3 Baltimore -8.9 vs. Tampa…
DetailsBowl Confidence Pool 2018
Here we go with what used to be one of our favorite exercises. We’re all about confidence pools because they reward being able to differentiate strong picks from weak ones. But after a couple of stellar years in the Solid Verbal contest we got housed last year in a small pool of analytics folks. We’re…
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