Here are our “grades” for the third week of the college season. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. pctile rating is a rating of the team’s performance, on a 0-1 scale, relative to all FBS games over the last ten years.
# | season | week | tm | opp | tm score |
opp score |
pctile rating |
score diff |
1 | 2016 | 3 | Louisville | Florida State | 63 | 20 | 0.995 | 41.3 |
2 | 2016 | 3 | Virginia Tech | Boston College | 49 | 0 | 0.995 | 40.9 |
3 | 2016 | 3 | Ohio State | Oklahoma | 45 | 24 | 0.990 | 36.9 |
4 | 2016 | 3 | Miami (FL) | Appalachian State | 45 | 10 | 0.968 | 29.6 |
5 | 2016 | 3 | Kansas State | Florida Atlantic | 63 | 7 | 0.966 | 29.2 |
6 | 2016 | 3 | Alabama | Ole Miss | 48 | 43 | 0.960 | 27.9 |
7 | 2016 | 3 | Houston | Cincinnati | 40 | 16 | 0.949 | 26.1 |
8 | 2016 | 3 | Western Michigan | Illinois | 34 | 10 | 0.948 | 25.9 |
9 | 2016 | 3 | Georgia Tech | Vanderbilt | 38 | 7 | 0.946 | 25.6 |
10 | 2016 | 3 | Toledo | Fresno State | 52 | 17 | 0.935 | 24.2 |
11 | 2016 | 3 | Michigan State | Notre Dame | 36 | 28 | 0.929 | 23.4 |
12 | 2016 | 3 | Arkansas | Texas State | 42 | 3 | 0.928 | 23.3 |
13 | 2016 | 3 | Texas A&M | Auburn | 29 | 16 | 0.925 | 22.9 |
14 | 2016 | 3 | South Florida | Syracuse | 45 | 20 | 0.920 | 22.4 |
15 | 2016 | 3 | Army | UTEP | 66 | 14 | 0.914 | 21.8 |
16 | 2016 | 3 | Stanford | USC | 27 | 10 | 0.861 | 17.3 |
17 | 2016 | 3 | Utah | San Jose State | 34 | 17 | 0.845 | 16.2 |
18 | 2016 | 3 | Michigan | Colorado | 45 | 28 | 0.840 | 15.9 |
19 | 2016 | 3 | Florida | North Texas | 32 | 0 | 0.823 | 14.8 |
20 | 2016 | 3 | Baylor | Rice | 38 | 10 | 0.815 | 14.3 |
21 | 2016 | 3 | Oregon | Nebraska | 32 | 35 | 0.811 | 14.0 |
22 | 2016 | 3 | East Carolina | South Carolina | 15 | 20 | 0.804 | 13.7 |
23 | 2016 | 3 | Texas | California | 43 | 50 | 0.771 | 11.9 |
24 | 2016 | 3 | Mississippi State | LSU | 20 | 23 | 0.769 | 11.8 |
25 | 2016 | 3 | San Diego State | Northern Illinois | 42 | 28 | 0.764 | 11.5 |
26 | 2016 | 3 | LSU | Mississippi State | 23 | 20 | 0.754 | 11.0 |
27 | 2016 | 3 | TCU | Iowa State | 41 | 20 | 0.734 | 10.0 |
28 | 2016 | 3 | UCLA | Brigham Young | 17 | 14 | 0.709 | 8.8 |
29 | 2016 | 3 | Pittsburgh | Oklahoma State | 38 | 45 | 0.704 | 8.6 |
30 | 2016 | 3 | Memphis | Kansas | 43 | 7 | 0.703 | 8.5 |
31 | 2016 | 3 | Penn State | Temple | 34 | 27 | 0.700 | 8.4 |
32 | 2016 | 3 | Troy | Southern Miss | 37 | 31 | 0.698 | 8.3 |
33 | 2016 | 3 | Akron | Marshall | 65 | 38 | 0.696 | 8.2 |
34 | 2016 | 3 | Georgia | Missouri | 28 | 27 | 0.690 | 7.9 |
35 | 2016 | 3 | Missouri | Georgia | 27 | 28 | 0.685 | 7.7 |
36 | 2016 | 3 | Washington State | Idaho | 56 | 6 | 0.685 | 7.7 |
37 | 2016 | 3 | Tennessee | Ohio | 28 | 19 | 0.682 | 7.6 |
38 | 2016 | 3 | Central Michigan | UNLV | 44 | 21 | 0.681 | 7.5 |
39 | 2016 | 3 | Duke | Northwestern | 13 | 24 | 0.664 | 6.7 |
40 | 2016 | 3 | Navy | Tulane | 21 | 14 | 0.659 | 6.5 |
41 | 2016 | 3 | Oklahoma State | Pittsburgh | 45 | 38 | 0.645 | 5.9 |
42 | 2016 | 3 | Ole Miss | Alabama | 43 | 48 | 0.625 | 5.1 |
43 | 2016 | 3 | Arizona | Hawaii | 47 | 28 | 0.621 | 4.9 |
44 | 2016 | 3 | Maryland | UCF | 30 | 24 | 0.595 | 3.8 |
45 | 2016 | 3 | New Mexico | Rutgers | 28 | 37 | 0.583 | 3.4 |
46 | 2016 | 3 | Middle Tennessee | Bowling Green | 41 | 21 | 0.566 | 2.7 |
47 | 2016 | 3 | Texas Tech | Louisiana Tech | 59 | 45 | 0.545 | 1.8 |
48 | 2016 | 3 | Nebraska | Oregon | 35 | 32 | 0.536 | 1.4 |
49 | 2016 | 3 | Arizona State | UTSA | 32 | 28 | 0.535 | 1.4 |
50 | 2016 | 3 | North Carolina State | Old Dominion | 49 | 22 | 0.514 | 0.6 |
51 | 2016 | 3 | Louisiana-Lafayette | South Alabama | 28 | 23 | 0.512 | 0.5 |
52 | 2016 | 3 | Brigham Young | UCLA | 14 | 17 | 0.502 | 0.1 |
53 | 2016 | 3 | Nevada | Buffalo | 38 | 14 | 0.501 | 0.0 |
54 | 2016 | 3 | Colorado | Michigan | 28 | 45 | 0.497 | -0.1 |
55 | 2016 | 3 | Kentucky | New Mexico State | 62 | 42 | 0.493 | -0.3 |
56 | 2016 | 3 | Western Kentucky | Miami (OH) | 31 | 24 | 0.491 | -0.4 |
57 | 2016 | 3 | USC | Stanford | 10 | 27 | 0.488 | -0.5 |
58 | 2016 | 3 | Virginia | Connecticut | 10 | 13 | 0.473 | -1.1 |
59 | 2016 | 3 | Ohio | Tennessee | 19 | 28 | 0.463 | -1.5 |
60 | 2016 | 3 | Louisiana Tech | Texas Tech | 45 | 59 | 0.453 | -1.9 |
61 | 2016 | 3 | Wisconsin | Georgia State | 23 | 17 | 0.446 | -2.2 |
62 | 2016 | 3 | California | Texas | 50 | 43 | 0.444 | -2.3 |
63 | 2016 | 3 | Louisiana-Monroe | Georgia Southern | 21 | 23 | 0.429 | -2.8 |
64 | 2016 | 3 | Auburn | Texas A&M | 16 | 29 | 0.424 | -3.0 |
65 | 2016 | 3 | Notre Dame | Michigan State | 28 | 36 | 0.414 | -3.5 |
66 | 2016 | 3 | Georgia State | Wisconsin | 17 | 23 | 0.407 | -3.7 |
67 | 2016 | 3 | Iowa State | TCU | 20 | 41 | 0.402 | -4.0 |
68 | 2016 | 3 | Utah State | Arkansas State | 34 | 20 | 0.397 | -4.2 |
69 | 2016 | 3 | Northwestern | Duke | 24 | 13 | 0.367 | -5.4 |
70 | 2016 | 3 | Connecticut | Virginia | 13 | 10 | 0.366 | -5.5 |
71 | 2016 | 3 | Temple | Penn State | 27 | 34 | 0.361 | -5.7 |
72 | 2016 | 3 | Old Dominion | North Carolina State | 22 | 49 | 0.332 | -6.9 |
73 | 2016 | 3 | Oklahoma | Ohio State | 24 | 45 | 0.328 | -7.1 |
74 | 2016 | 3 | Arkansas State | Utah State | 20 | 34 | 0.296 | -8.6 |
75 | 2016 | 3 | Florida State | Louisville | 20 | 63 | 0.279 | -9.4 |
76 | 2016 | 3 | Eastern Michigan | Charlotte | 37 | 19 | 0.265 | -10.0 |
77 | 2016 | 3 | UCF | Maryland | 24 | 30 | 0.261 | -10.2 |
78 | 2016 | 3 | Miami (OH) | Western Kentucky | 24 | 31 | 0.236 | -11.5 |
79 | 2016 | 3 | Georgia Southern | Louisiana-Monroe | 23 | 21 | 0.231 | -11.7 |
80 | 2016 | 3 | UTSA | Arizona State | 28 | 32 | 0.228 | -11.9 |
81 | 2016 | 3 | Rutgers | New Mexico | 37 | 28 | 0.227 | -11.9 |
82 | 2016 | 3 | Florida International | Massachusetts | 13 | 21 | 0.206 | -13.1 |
83 | 2016 | 3 | Northern Illinois | San Diego State | 28 | 42 | 0.204 | -13.2 |
84 | 2016 | 3 | Bowling Green | Middle Tennessee | 21 | 41 | 0.202 | -13.3 |
85 | 2016 | 3 | Southern Miss | Troy | 31 | 37 | 0.201 | -13.4 |
86 | 2016 | 3 | New Mexico State | Kentucky | 42 | 62 | 0.170 | -15.2 |
87 | 2016 | 3 | Tulane | Navy | 14 | 21 | 0.169 | -15.3 |
88 | 2016 | 3 | Hawaii | Arizona | 28 | 47 | 0.165 | -15.5 |
89 | 2016 | 3 | Massachusetts | Florida International | 21 | 13 | 0.157 | -16.1 |
90 | 2016 | 3 | South Carolina | East Carolina | 20 | 15 | 0.144 | -16.9 |
91 | 2016 | 3 | Syracuse | South Florida | 20 | 45 | 0.131 | -17.9 |
92 | 2016 | 3 | Idaho | Washington State | 6 | 56 | 0.130 | -18.0 |
93 | 2016 | 3 | Rice | Baylor | 10 | 38 | 0.112 | -19.4 |
94 | 2016 | 3 | Appalachian State | Miami (FL) | 10 | 45 | 0.112 | -19.4 |
95 | 2016 | 3 | San Jose State | Utah | 17 | 34 | 0.110 | -19.6 |
96 | 2016 | 3 | Vanderbilt | Georgia Tech | 7 | 38 | 0.110 | -19.6 |
97 | 2016 | 3 | Buffalo | Nevada | 14 | 38 | 0.089 | -21.5 |
98 | 2016 | 3 | UNLV | Central Michigan | 21 | 44 | 0.088 | -21.5 |
99 | 2016 | 3 | South Alabama | Louisiana-Lafayette | 23 | 28 | 0.086 | -21.8 |
100 | 2016 | 3 | Cincinnati | Houston | 16 | 40 | 0.078 | -22.7 |
101 | 2016 | 3 | Kansas | Memphis | 7 | 43 | 0.068 | -23.8 |
102 | 2016 | 3 | Marshall | Akron | 38 | 65 | 0.063 | -24.4 |
103 | 2016 | 3 | Charlotte | Eastern Michigan | 19 | 37 | 0.059 | -24.9 |
104 | 2016 | 3 | North Texas | Florida | 0 | 32 | 0.046 | -26.9 |
105 | 2016 | 3 | Boston College | Virginia Tech | 0 | 49 | 0.040 | -27.9 |
106 | 2016 | 3 | Illinois | Western Michigan | 10 | 34 | 0.036 | -28.7 |
107 | 2016 | 3 | Texas State | Arkansas | 3 | 42 | 0.026 | -30.9 |
108 | 2016 | 3 | Fresno State | Toledo | 17 | 52 | 0.015 | -34.5 |
109 | 2016 | 3 | UTEP | Army | 14 | 66 | 0.011 | -36.4 |
110 | 2016 | 3 | Florida Atlantic | Kansas State | 7 | 63 | 0.008 | -38.4 |