Here are our “grades” for the fourth week of the college season. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. pctile rating is a rating of the team’s performance, on a 0-1 scale, relative to all FBS games over the last ten years.
# | season | week | tm | opp | tm score |
opp score |
pctile rating |
score diff |
1 | 2016 | 4 | Florida State | South Florida | 55 | 35 | 0.981 | 33.2 |
2 | 2016 | 4 | Michigan | Penn State | 49 | 10 | 0.979 | 32.5 |
3 | 2016 | 4 | Clemson | Georgia Tech | 26 | 7 | 0.979 | 32.3 |
4 | 2016 | 4 | Texas A&M | Arkansas | 45 | 24 | 0.974 | 30.9 |
5 | 2016 | 4 | Ole Miss | Georgia | 45 | 14 | 0.964 | 28.6 |
6 | 2016 | 4 | Houston | Texas State | 64 | 3 | 0.958 | 27.6 |
7 | 2016 | 4 | Stanford | UCLA | 22 | 13 | 0.940 | 24.8 |
8 | 2016 | 4 | Alabama | Kent State | 48 | 0 | 0.936 | 24.3 |
9 | 2016 | 4 | Pittsburgh | North Carolina | 36 | 37 | 0.933 | 23.9 |
10 | 2016 | 4 | Memphis | Bowling Green | 77 | 3 | 0.930 | 23.6 |
11 | 2016 | 4 | Louisville | Marshall | 59 | 28 | 0.921 | 22.5 |
12 | 2016 | 4 | Wisconsin | Michigan State | 30 | 6 | 0.910 | 21.4 |
13 | 2016 | 4 | TCU | Southern Methodist | 33 | 3 | 0.880 | 18.8 |
14 | 2016 | 4 | UCF | Florida International | 53 | 14 | 0.878 | 18.6 |
15 | 2016 | 4 | Colorado | Oregon | 41 | 38 | 0.874 | 18.3 |
16 | 2016 | 4 | USC | Utah | 27 | 31 | 0.853 | 16.7 |
17 | 2016 | 4 | Tennessee | Florida | 38 | 28 | 0.851 | 16.6 |
18 | 2016 | 4 | Brigham Young | West Virginia | 32 | 35 | 0.839 | 15.8 |
19 | 2016 | 4 | LSU | Auburn | 13 | 18 | 0.836 | 15.6 |
20 | 2016 | 4 | Nebraska | Northwestern | 24 | 13 | 0.828 | 15.1 |
21 | 2016 | 4 | Washington | Arizona | 35 | 28 | 0.822 | 14.7 |
22 | 2016 | 4 | Virginia Tech | East Carolina | 54 | 17 | 0.796 | 13.2 |
23 | 2016 | 4 | Duke | Notre Dame | 38 | 35 | 0.786 | 12.6 |
24 | 2016 | 4 | Boise State | Oregon State | 38 | 24 | 0.775 | 12.1 |
25 | 2016 | 4 | Virginia | Central Michigan | 49 | 35 | 0.721 | 9.3 |
26 | 2016 | 4 | Auburn | LSU | 18 | 13 | 0.705 | 8.6 |
27 | 2016 | 4 | Air Force | Utah State | 27 | 20 | 0.700 | 8.4 |
28 | 2016 | 4 | Iowa State | San Jose State | 44 | 10 | 0.699 | 8.3 |
29 | 2016 | 4 | Oklahoma State | Baylor | 24 | 35 | 0.686 | 7.7 |
30 | 2016 | 4 | Western Michigan | Georgia Southern | 49 | 31 | 0.676 | 7.3 |
31 | 2016 | 4 | Mississippi State | Massachusetts | 47 | 35 | 0.669 | 7.0 |
32 | 2016 | 4 | Southern Miss | UTEP | 34 | 7 | 0.652 | 6.2 |
33 | 2016 | 4 | Florida | Tennessee | 28 | 38 | 0.643 | 5.8 |
34 | 2016 | 4 | Kentucky | South Carolina | 17 | 10 | 0.633 | 5.4 |
35 | 2016 | 4 | Western Kentucky | Vanderbilt | 30 | 31 | 0.625 | 5.1 |
36 | 2016 | 4 | Troy | New Mexico State | 52 | 6 | 0.624 | 5.0 |
37 | 2016 | 4 | Baylor | Oklahoma State | 35 | 24 | 0.620 | 4.9 |
38 | 2016 | 4 | Iowa | Rutgers | 14 | 7 | 0.595 | 3.8 |
39 | 2016 | 4 | California | Arizona State | 41 | 51 | 0.584 | 3.4 |
40 | 2016 | 4 | Arizona State | California | 51 | 41 | 0.578 | 3.1 |
41 | 2016 | 4 | Wake Forest | Indiana | 33 | 28 | 0.552 | 2.1 |
42 | 2016 | 4 | Army | Buffalo | 20 | 23 | 0.537 | 1.5 |
43 | 2016 | 4 | Minnesota | Colorado State | 31 | 24 | 0.536 | 1.4 |
44 | 2016 | 4 | Indiana | Wake Forest | 28 | 33 | 0.515 | 0.6 |
45 | 2016 | 4 | Tulsa | Fresno State | 48 | 41 | 0.507 | 0.3 |
46 | 2016 | 4 | Arizona | Washington | 28 | 35 | 0.505 | 0.2 |
47 | 2016 | 4 | Purdue | Nevada | 24 | 14 | 0.497 | -0.1 |
48 | 2016 | 4 | Rutgers | Iowa | 7 | 14 | 0.497 | -0.1 |
49 | 2016 | 4 | Appalachian State | Akron | 45 | 38 | 0.489 | -0.4 |
50 | 2016 | 4 | Ball State | Florida Atlantic | 31 | 27 | 0.483 | -0.7 |
51 | 2016 | 4 | Notre Dame | Duke | 35 | 38 | 0.469 | -1.2 |
52 | 2016 | 4 | Syracuse | Connecticut | 31 | 24 | 0.468 | -1.3 |
53 | 2016 | 4 | Georgia Southern | Western Michigan | 31 | 49 | 0.455 | -1.8 |
54 | 2016 | 4 | Utah | USC | 31 | 27 | 0.438 | -2.5 |
55 | 2016 | 4 | Middle Tennessee | Louisiana Tech | 38 | 34 | 0.436 | -2.6 |
56 | 2016 | 4 | North Carolina | Pittsburgh | 37 | 36 | 0.418 | -3.3 |
57 | 2016 | 4 | Georgia | Ole Miss | 14 | 45 | 0.411 | -3.6 |
58 | 2016 | 4 | West Virginia | Brigham Young | 35 | 32 | 0.398 | -4.1 |
59 | 2016 | 4 | Louisiana Tech | Middle Tennessee | 34 | 38 | 0.397 | -4.2 |
60 | 2016 | 4 | Temple | Charlotte | 48 | 20 | 0.390 | -4.5 |
61 | 2016 | 4 | Vanderbilt | Western Kentucky | 31 | 30 | 0.382 | -4.8 |
62 | 2016 | 4 | Michigan State | Wisconsin | 6 | 30 | 0.363 | -5.6 |
63 | 2016 | 4 | Louisiana-Lafayette | Tulane | 39 | 41 | 0.357 | -5.9 |
64 | 2016 | 4 | South Carolina | Kentucky | 10 | 17 | 0.353 | -6.0 |
65 | 2016 | 4 | East Carolina | Virginia Tech | 17 | 54 | 0.348 | -6.2 |
66 | 2016 | 4 | Colorado State | Minnesota | 24 | 31 | 0.348 | -6.2 |
67 | 2016 | 4 | Utah State | Air Force | 20 | 27 | 0.339 | -6.6 |
68 | 2016 | 4 | Cincinnati | Miami (OH) | 27 | 20 | 0.333 | -6.9 |
69 | 2016 | 4 | Eastern Michigan | Wyoming | 27 | 24 | 0.330 | -7.0 |
70 | 2016 | 4 | Northwestern | Nebraska | 13 | 24 | 0.330 | -7.0 |
71 | 2016 | 4 | Oregon | Colorado | 38 | 41 | 0.319 | -7.5 |
72 | 2016 | 4 | Miami (OH) | Cincinnati | 20 | 27 | 0.317 | -7.6 |
73 | 2016 | 4 | Old Dominion | UTSA | 33 | 19 | 0.314 | -7.7 |
74 | 2016 | 4 | UCLA | Stanford | 13 | 22 | 0.307 | -8.0 |
75 | 2016 | 4 | Akron | Appalachian State | 38 | 45 | 0.301 | -8.3 |
76 | 2016 | 4 | Connecticut | Syracuse | 24 | 31 | 0.279 | -9.3 |
77 | 2016 | 4 | Marshall | Louisville | 28 | 59 | 0.274 | -9.6 |
78 | 2016 | 4 | South Florida | Florida State | 35 | 55 | 0.270 | -9.8 |
79 | 2016 | 4 | Oregon State | Boise State | 24 | 38 | 0.259 | -10.3 |
80 | 2016 | 4 | Arkansas | Texas A&M | 24 | 45 | 0.254 | -10.5 |
81 | 2016 | 4 | North Texas | Rice | 42 | 35 | 0.253 | -10.6 |
82 | 2016 | 4 | Nevada | Purdue | 14 | 24 | 0.245 | -11.0 |
83 | 2016 | 4 | Tulane | Louisiana-Lafayette | 41 | 39 | 0.236 | -11.5 |
84 | 2016 | 4 | Central Michigan | Virginia | 35 | 49 | 0.216 | -12.6 |
85 | 2016 | 4 | UNLV | Idaho | 30 | 33 | 0.213 | -12.7 |
86 | 2016 | 4 | Idaho | UNLV | 33 | 30 | 0.210 | -12.8 |
87 | 2016 | 4 | Massachusetts | Mississippi State | 35 | 47 | 0.204 | -13.2 |
88 | 2016 | 4 | Georgia Tech | Clemson | 7 | 26 | 0.191 | -13.9 |
89 | 2016 | 4 | Wyoming | Eastern Michigan | 24 | 27 | 0.187 | -14.2 |
90 | 2016 | 4 | Penn State | Michigan | 10 | 49 | 0.186 | -14.2 |
91 | 2016 | 4 | Kent State | Alabama | 0 | 48 | 0.175 | -14.9 |
92 | 2016 | 4 | Buffalo | Army | 23 | 20 | 0.175 | -14.9 |
93 | 2016 | 4 | Southern Methodist | TCU | 3 | 33 | 0.158 | -16.0 |
94 | 2016 | 4 | Fresno State | Tulsa | 41 | 48 | 0.138 | -17.4 |
95 | 2016 | 4 | Charlotte | Temple | 20 | 48 | 0.135 | -17.6 |
96 | 2016 | 4 | San Jose State | Iowa State | 10 | 44 | 0.109 | -19.7 |
97 | 2016 | 4 | UTSA | Old Dominion | 19 | 33 | 0.102 | -20.2 |
98 | 2016 | 4 | Florida Atlantic | Ball State | 27 | 31 | 0.095 | -20.9 |
99 | 2016 | 4 | Rice | North Texas | 35 | 42 | 0.070 | -23.5 |
100 | 2016 | 4 | New Mexico State | Troy | 6 | 52 | 0.069 | -23.7 |
101 | 2016 | 4 | UTEP | Southern Miss | 7 | 34 | 0.047 | -26.7 |
102 | 2016 | 4 | Bowling Green | Memphis | 3 | 77 | 0.031 | -29.8 |
103 | 2016 | 4 | Texas State | Houston | 3 | 64 | 0.008 | -38.5 |
104 | 2016 | 4 | Florida International | UCF | 14 | 53 | 0.005 | -41.6 |
105 | 2016 | 3 | Boston College | Virginia Tech | 0 | 49 | 0.040 | -27.9 |
106 | 2016 | 3 | Illinois | Western Michigan | 10 | 34 | 0.036 | -28.7 |
107 | 2016 | 3 | Texas State | Arkansas | 3 | 42 | 0.026 | -30.9 |
108 | 2016 | 3 | Fresno State | Toledo | 17 | 52 | 0.015 | -34.5 |
109 | 2016 | 3 | UTEP | Army | 14 | 66 | 0.011 | -36.4 |
110 | 2016 | 3 | Florida Atlantic | Kansas State | 7 | 63 | 0.008 | -38.4 |