We ended the “regular” season on a good note, winning our one official play (Louisiana Tech +11), and going 2-0 on our leans. Since we won’t post bowl game picks until next week, I figured I’d fill this space with a summary of our season. It’s been a very good year. Overall our record on official plays was 45-32-1 (58.4%) and our picks beat the closing line by an average of 1.18 points. Broken down across bet types, here’s how we’ve done:
- Big Plays: 16-11-1 (59.3%)
- Other Plays: 29-21 (58.0%)
- MP Leans (unofficial): 20-18-2 (52.6%)
Our plays broke down as follows:
- Favorites (official): 13-15, average CLV: +0.92
- Favorites (lean): 10-4-1, average CLV: +0.82
- Underdogs (official): 32-17-1, average CLV: +1.32
- Underdogs (lean): 10-13-1, average CLV: +0.79
Interestingly, we did worse on games where we had favorable line move. In all games (including leans) where the line either moved against us or did not move at all, our picks went 19-10; in games it moved our way we were 46-40. I wouldn’t read much into that, but it’s fascinating nonetheless.
Including leans, our most picked teams were UNLV (5), Kansas (5), North Carolina (4), and UCLA (4). Teams we faded the most were Wisconsin, Miami (OH), and UAB (5 each), and Baylor, San Jose State, and Western Kentucky (4 each).
You can view all our picks in one place right here.