Week 12 Recap
Last weekend’s results were disappointing, with our official plays going 3-5. Our Big Plays split, with LSU (+2) looking awful offensively in a shutout loss at Arkansas. Maybe it was a letdown game after the ‘Bama loss. For whatever reason, they did not play like the LSU team we had been seeing this season. Hawaii (+10.5) came through for us, capitalizing on two San Jose State missed FGs and a red-zone interception in the first half, and cruising to their first road win of the year, 13-0.
Our Other Plays went 2-4. The most painful of our losses was, of course, the Alabama (-8.5) one, where a Mississippi State touchdown on fourth-and-goal in the final seconds cut ‘Bama’s lead to 5 and cost us the cover. To our other losses: Central Michigan (-17) won by only 7; Tulane (+10.5) was blown out at home by Memphis, losing by 31; and Ball State (+4) lost back on Wednesday. Our two winners were UCF (-20), a 24-point winner on Friday, and San Diego State (+14), which blew a two-score lead but still was able to cover.
We had quite a few MP Leans last week. I’m not going to go through all of them, but they ended up 3-4.
Week 12 Closing Line Value
Another strong week in closing line value. Though at least part of that is due to you folks moving the lines. Our official plays average 1 point of value over the closing line, while our leans averaged a whopping 1.5 points of value.
- LSU: picked +2, closed +1.5, CLV +0.5
- Hawaii: picked +10.5, closed +10, CLV +0.5
- San Diego State: picked +14, closed +14, CLV 0.0
- Tulane: picked +10.5, closed +7.5, CLV +4.0
- Central Michigan: picked -17, closed -18.5, CLV +1.5
- Alabama: picked -8.5, closed -10, CLV +1.5
- UCF: picked -20, closed -19.5, CLV -0.5
- Ball State: picked +4, closed +3.5, CLV +0.5
- *Army: picked +9.5, closed +7, CLV +2.5
- *Georgia Tech: picked +3, closed +2, CLV +1.0
- *Kansas: picked +28.5, closed +28, CLV +0.5
- *Stanford: picked -7.5, closed -10, CLV +2.5
- *Rice: picked +21.5, closed +20.75, CLV +0.75
- *Troy: picked +6.5, closed +5.25, CLV +1.25
- *Maryland: picked +12.5, closed +10.5, CLV +2.0
Week 13 Picks:
Pick criteria is the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Leans (53.5-54%). These estimates are based on regressing the MP line toward the market line. The amount of regression is determined by the historical predictive value of the MP number relative to the closing line. This means our cover probabilities will be conservative because lines tend to move our way. (Unfortunately, we don’t have a database with historical Thursday morning lines.) MP lines are calculated by taking the difference in power ratings, giving a bonus for teams coming off a bye, adding home field advantage, adjusting for QB injuries, and adjusting for pace of play. Lines are the Vegas Insider consensus lines as of 11:00am PST.
Big Plays (14-11-1 YTD)
- none this week
Other Plays (26-19 YTD)
- UTSA +9.5 at Western Kentucky [MP Line: UTSA +4.8]
- UCLA -3.5 vs. USC [MP Line: UCLA -9.0]
- UNLV +10.5 at Hawaii [MP Line: UNLV +5.0]*
MP Leans (17-15-1 YTD)
- UTEP +7.5 at Rice [MP Line: UTEP +5.0]
- Fresno State +7.5 at Nevada [MP Line: Fresno +5.2]
- Toledo -7 vs. Bowling Green [MP Line: Toledo -12.5] (PUSH)
*UNLV’s starting QB is listed as questionable. If he plays, UNLV is a Big Play. If he doesn’t, it is not a play. I’m splitting the difference and listing it as an Other Play, which is where it would be if you assume a 50/50 chance he plays.