We rebounded very nicely from a disappointing Week 12, going 8-4 overall and 4-0 on Big Plays. That runs our record on Big Plays to 21-11! As usual, I like to monitor the line moves and if the moves agree with our picks. The lines moved very strongly in our favor on our biggest plays, averaging 1.75 points. The biggest movers were Central Michigan moving from -10 to -13 and Baylor moving from +10 to +7.5. We got some unfavorable moves on our Other Plays, with lines moving against us an average of 0.83 points per game, but MP Leans averaged a 1 point move in the right direction. Overall, lines closed an average of 0.79 points closer to our number, which is pretty typical of the line moves we’ve had this season.
As always, picks are based on Massey-Peabody ratings, and do not include injuries, weather, or matchup factors. Lines are widely available as of 7pm EST on Tuesday evening.
Big Plays (21-11 YTD)
- TCU +12.5 vs. Baylor
- Iowa State +8.5 at West Virginia
- Vanderbilt -14 vs. Wake Forest
Other Plays (23-31-1 YTD)
- New Mexico +36 at Boise State (downgraded from Big Play due to QB, RB injuries)
- Southern Mississippi +14.5 at UAB
- Tulsa +5 vs. North Texas
- Clemson +5.5 at South Carolina
- Bowling Green -1.5 at Buffalo
MP Leans (20-18 YTD)
- LSU -24.5 vs. Arkansas
- Michigan State -14.5 vs. Minnesota
- Texas A&M +4.5 at Missouri