Week 2 was a bit of a down week for our picks. Iowa State (+12), our only Big Play, was our lone bright spot, leading Kansas State most of the game before yielding two late touchdowns to lose 32-28. Nevertheless, the Cyclones covered the spread comfortably.
Tennessee (-16), our first Other Play, failed to cover by a mere one point, winning 34-19. Another big favorite, Mississippi State (-27.5) won the game but never really came close to covering. Finally, Tulane (+10) got off to a fast start, but Georgia Tech pulled away in the second half, winning by 17. 0-3 on the Other Plays is not exactly setting the world on fire.
Auburn (-31) covered easily as our first MP Lean, while Colorado State (+10.5) was dominated by Boise State for three quarters, before putting together two fourth quarter touchdown drives and nearly coming up with the backdoor cover, losing 37-24.
Despite the middling record, we did have a good week in terms of closing line value (CLV):
- Iowa State: picked at +12, closed at +11.75, CLV +0.25
- Tennessee: picked at -16, closed at -16.25, CLV +0.25
- Mississippi State: picked at -27.5, closed at -29, CLV +1.5
- Tulane: picked at +10, closed at +7.5, CLV +2.5
- *Auburn: picked at -31, closed at -33.5, CLV +2.5
- *Colorado State: picked at +10.5, closed at +8, CLV +2.5
On to this week’s picks… Lines widely available as of 4:15pm EDT on Tuesday. As always, we don’t factor in matchup specifics, situational factors, weather, or injuries (except a prior adjustment for the QB). Lines are based on our power ratings and a standard home field advantage, with adjustment for pace of play.
Pick criteria: Big Plays have a 55%+ chance of covering; Other Plays are 54%-55%; MP Leans are 53.5%-54%. Note that these probabilities are based on the historic predictive power of MP lines factoring in the closing line. Since we expect movement in our direction generally, these probabilities are conservative.
Big Plays (2-0 YTD)
- none this week
Other Plays (3-3 YTD)
- Buffalo +35 at Baylor
- Central Michigan +6.5 vs. Syracuse
- Rutgers +3.5 vs. Penn State
MP Leans (1-2 YTD)
- Toledo +11 at Cincinnati
- Michigan -31 vs. Miami (OH)