Now that was the weekend we’ve been waiting for. Most of the credit goes to positive variance, but a 4-1 week is still satisfying. And on top of that, our two leans both won as well. We’ll start the recap of last week’s plays with our one Big Play. Vanderbilt looked completely out of sorts in their first three games, but due to the market’s overreaction to their brutal start, we found plenty of value taking 22 points at home. Vandy jumped out to an early 14-0 lead, and covered relatively easily, losing by only 14.
Our Other Plays went 3-1, with Bowling Green (+27)–which took a 68-17 beating at the hands of Wisconsin–accounting for our only defeat. Georgia Tech (+8) was the second straight underdog to beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Washington State (+23.5) gave Oregon an unexpectedly close game, covering easily. And lastly, Florida Atlantic (+4) lost by 1 to Wyoming on a last-minute field goal, but still gave us the cover.
Our unofficial MP Leans went 2-0, with both Wake Forest (+2.5) and Memphis (-12) covering.
On to last weekend’s closing line value (CLV) report:
- Vanderbilt: picked at +22, closed at +21.5, CLV +0.5
- Bowling Green: picked at +27, closed at +26, CLV +1.0
- Georgia Tech: picked at +8, closed at +7.5, CLV +0.5
- Washington State: picked at +23.5, closed at +21.5, CLV +2.0
- Florida Atlantic: picked at +4, closed at +3, CLV +1.0
- *Wake Forest: picked at +2.5, closed at +2.5, CLV 0.0
- *Memphis: picked at -12, closed at -11.75, CLV -0.25
This week’s picks are based on consensus lines as of 10:30am Vegas time on Wednesday morning. As always, our picks are based solely on Massey-Peabody ratings and a standard home field advantage, with an adjustment for pace of play.
Big Plays have a 55%+ chance of covering; Other Plays are 54%-55%; MP Leans are 53.5%-54%. Note that these probabilities are based on the historic predictive power of MP lines factoring in the closing line. Since we expect movement in our direction generally, these probabilities are conservative.
Big Plays (3-0 YTD)
- Oregon State +9 at USC
- Clemson -14 vs. North Carolina
Other Plays (7-6 YTD)
- Arizona State +4 vs. UCLA
- South Florida +34 at Wisconsin
- Connecticut +5.5 vs. Temple
- Buffalo -6 vs. Miami (OH)
- Southern Methodist +31.5 vs. TCU
- Kansas +13.5 vs. Texas
- Florida International +17 at UAB
MP Leans (3-4 YTD)
- Troy +13.5 vs. Louisiana-Monroe
- Iowa State +21 vs. Baylor
- Georgia -17 vs. Tennessee
- Ole Miss -19 vs. Memphis
