Week 6 Recap:
Excellent weekend, going 6-2 overall, bringing our season record to 20-13. After underperforming last season, and starting this season slowly, our Other Plays finally are in the money after a 3-0 Week 6. Kansas (+26) pulled through with a late touchdown, taking our play from a push to a win, while Arizona State (+11.5) and Northwestern (+8) both won outright.
My hopes were up for a clean sweep after our Big Plays got off to a 3-0 start. Indiana (-13.5) and Southern Methodist (+41) gave us solid, low-stress covers; Florida (+2.5) made us worry, but came from behind to beat Tennessee 10-9. Alas, our acronymed teams did not come through in the late games: UCLA (-13) was upset by Utah; UNLV (+10.5) fell by 23 to San Jose State.
Our lone MP Lean–North Carolina (+2)–fell to Virginia Tech by 17.
Week 6 Closing Line Value:
- Indiana: picked -13.5, closed -11, CLV -2.5
- Southern Methodist: picked +41, closed +38.5, CLV +2.5
- Florida: picked +2.5, closed pick, CLV +2.5
- UCLA: picked -13, closed -13, CLV 0.0
- UNLV: picked +10.5, closed +8.5, CLV +2.0
- Kansas: picked +26, closed +26.75, CLV -0.75
- Arizona State: picked +11.5, closed +12, CLV -0.5
- Northwestern: picked +8, closed +7.5, CLV +0.5
- *North Carolina: picked +2, closed +2.5, CLV -0.5
Week 7 Picks:
Our picks are based on differences in MP power ratings and home field advantage, with a 1.5 point bonus for teams coming off byes. We further adjust for pace of play. Some people have asked me why certain games are and aren’t plays and what the threshold point difference is. The quick answer is there isn’t one. It depends on the value of the points. I use the Massey-Peabody line as an independent variable in an ordered logistic regression predicting the actual score distribution. Since the best predictor is a linear combination of the the market line and the M-P line, we regress our edge a considerable amount (toward close to 50%–it varies a bit as there are persistent market biases) to come up with a predicted cover probability for each game.
Lines are Vegas Insider consensus lines as of 1:45pm Vegas time on Wednesday.
Big Plays have a 55%+ chance of covering; Other Plays are 54%-55%; MP Leans are 53.5%-54%. Note that these probabilities are based on the historic predictive power of MP lines factoring in the closing line. Since we expect movement in our direction generally, these probabilities are conservative.
Big Plays (7-3 YTD)
- Rice +2 at Army
- Troy -6.5 vs. New Mexico State
Other Plays (13-10 YTD)
- Illinois +25.5 at Wisconsin
- UNLV +10.5 vs. Fresno State
- Texas Tech +6 vs. West Virginia
- Houston +9 at Memphis
MP Leans (5-6-1 YTD)
- Florida +1.5 vs. LSU
- Ball State +1 vs. Western Michigan
- Michigan -1 vs. Penn State
