Week 7 Recap:
Another excellent weekend for our picks. Our official plays went 6-0 and our leans went 1-2. Both our big plays won handily: Rice (+2) beat Army 41-20 and Troy (-6.5) beat New Mexico State 41-24.
Our Other Plays were all underdogs: Illinois (+25.5) played Wisconsin close, losing 38-28. UNLV (+10.5) won outright against Fresno State. Texas Tech (+6) blew a big second half lead but still managed to cover, losing by three, and Houston (+9) beat Memphis 28-24.
Our MP Leans did not have the same good fortune. Western Michigan (+1) blew a 31-14 halftime lead and lost 42-38, while Florida (+1.5) lost a close one to LSU. Michigan (-1) did pull out the home win against Penn State.
Week 7 Closing Line Value:
- Rice: picked +2, closed -2.75, CLV +4.75
- Troy: picked -6.5, closed -8, CLV +1.5
- Illinois: picked +25.5, closed +27, CLV -1.5
- Houston: picked +9, closed +7.25, CLV +1.75
- Texas Tech: picked +6, closed +6, CLV 0.0
- UNLV: picked +10.5, closed +9.5, CLV +1.0
- *Florida: picked +1.5, closed +2, CLV -0.5
- *Western Michigan: picked +1, closed +1, CLV 0.0
- *Michigan: picked -1, closed -2.5, CLV +1.5
A solid week in line move value, with only two games moving against us.
Week 8 Picks:
Our picks are based on differences in MP power ratings and home field advantage, with a 1.5 point bonus for teams coming off byes. We further adjust for pace of play. Lines are Vegas Insider consensus lines as of 5:20pm Vegas time on Wednesday.
Big Plays have a 55%+ chance of covering; Other Plays are 54%-55%; MP Leans are 53.5%-54%. Note that these probabilities are based on the historic predictive power of MP lines factoring in the closing line. Since we expect movement in our direction generally, these probabilities are conservative.
Big Plays (9-3 YTD)
- Oregon State +3 vs. Utah
- Northern Illinois -11 vs. Miami (OH)
- Southern Miss +10 at North Texas
- South Alabama -17.5 vs. Georgia State
- Florida Atlantic +6 vs. Western Kentucky
Other Plays (17-10 YTD)
- North Carolina +2.5 vs. Georgia Tech
- Brigham Young -10 vs. Nevada
- Idaho -4 vs. New Mexico State
- Florida -6 vs. Missouri
MP Leans (6-8-1 YTD)
- Middle Tennessee +1 vs. UAB