Quick look at our projections going into Week 4. You can read a fuller account in the Washington Post, where we’re doing a weekly summary on Mondays. You can also find our playoff bracket and a prediction engine at the Wall Street Journal.
So far the playoff field looks pretty deep. We have 10 teams with at least a 14% chance of making it, and another 8 with at least a 5% chance (see table). That looks like a reasonable-sized group for this time of year, and they (mostly) pass the eye test.
At the top we have Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson and Ohio State. As we discussed pre-season, as strong as those four look the chance we end up with that particular bracket is actually quite small. In our sim it’s coming up ~3% of the time. Even more likely, if you’ll allow us the flexibility, is Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson and (USC or Washington), which comes up ~4%. As we get deeper into the season that kind of play-in logic will become more and more important.
|Team||MP||MP Rank||E(Ws)||E(Ls)||P(L<2)||Conf Champ||Playoff|