2019 Bowl Confidence Pool
Our numbers for the 2019 bowls. We have not adjusted for players sitting out, suspensions, etc. mp confidence pool for posting
Our numbers for the 2019 bowls. We have not adjusted for players sitting out, suspensions, etc. mp confidence pool for posting
We’re getting out of the pick-posting business. Rufus explained why on his Twitter feed September 8. Quoting @RufusPeabody here… “Not blogging @MasseyPeabody NFL plays this year. Why? It’s one input to my betting but not the only one. It doesn’t feel right to give out a ‘model play’ on, for example, the Bengals, while I’m…
A good sim should occasionally surprise you. Especially with something as complex and uncertain as a college football playoff season, it’s more or less impossible to see how all the parts fit together ahead of time without one. Alabama and Clemson are pretty straightforward, sure, but what about the other 128 teams? And in what…
Quick few updates on CFB this season… We intend to post top-35 power rankings as we have the last few years. We’ll get the site updated in the next day or three. Meantime we’ll get some numbers out on Twitter. We’re still tweaking our models right now so will continue to refine our numbers for…
Here we go with what used to be one of our favorite exercises. We’re all about confidence pools because they reward being able to differentiate strong picks from weak ones. But after a couple of stellar years in the Solid Verbal contest we got housed last year in a small pool of analytics folks. We’re…
Some quick notes on the two all-FBS games today… Hawaii is in Fort Collins to play CSU at 7:30pm ET. We make Hawaii #127 (!) in the country at -24.26. That’s a 7-spot drop from where they ended last year. We have their offense and defense equally bad (125 & 128). Meantime Colorado State checks…
So many reasons to love bowl confidence pools. There’s still a ton of noise, but so much more signal than when just picking games. You can enjoy this at Superbowl Betting Sites, enjoy betting at the same time while watching the bowl pools. Couple that with a healthy 41-game slate and it’s not a bad…
In honor of the playoff committee’s first rankings we rebuilt the method we use to project the committee’s choices at the end of the year. Tough to do algorithmically, given how much they consider and how little history we could draw on, but we didn’t do bad calling their first ranking (got the playoff four…
This week’s projections roll in with the same top 10 teams as last week. That means we were never sold on Michigan and we’re still not sold on Notre Dame. Nothing against the Irish – they crack our power rankings top 10 for the first time this week – but they have a tough road…
Passing along this week’s projections. For a full write-up see Monday’s Washington Post column. We have 10 teams with >20% of making the playoff. It’s very close to the top 2 from each of the Power-5 conferences, except that the Big-10 has 3 and the Pac-12 only 1. At the top end we see two,…