This week’s projections roll in with the same top 10 teams as last week. That means we were never sold on Michigan and we’re still not sold on Notre Dame. Nothing against the Irish – they crack our power rankings top 10 for the first time this week – but they have a tough road between here and the playoff. We give them only an 18% chance to win out.
It’s a remarkably deep field, setting up to make the committee’s job the most difficult yet. There are still a lot of losses to spread around as these top teams start facing each other. But if they fall in just the right places, knocking out the Pac12 but leaving lots of other 1-loss teams scattered about, the internet might explode. I mean how would one choose between 1-loss Big-10 East runner-up Penn State, 1-loss SEC-title-losing Georgia, 1-loss ACC-title-losing Miami, 1-loss Notre Dame, and just for kicks, a 2-loss Big-12 champion. We can dream.
More realistically, we’re projecting two spots likely going to Alabama and Ohio State, and two others going to the ACC and Big-12 champs. In our numbers those conference titles are knife-edge battles between Clemson-Miami and TCU-Oklahoma. This week the (slight) edge goes to the Tigers and Horned Frogs.
For a full write-up our weekly WaPo piece is here.
| Team | MP | MP Rank | E(Ws) | E(Ls) | P(L<2) | Conf Champ | Playoff |
| Alabama | 35.62 | 1 | 11.7 | 0.3 | 97% | 69% | 76% |
| Ohio State | 31.80 | 2 | 10.6 | 1.4 | 68% | 64% | 54% |
| TCU | 19.98 | 9 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 63% | 36% | 31% |
| Clemson | 24.97 | 3 | 10.2 | 1.8 | 43% | 42% | 30% |
| Washington | 22.75 | 7 | 10.1 | 1.9 | 39% | 39% | 27% |
| Penn State | 22.85 | 6 | 10.9 | 1.1 | 79% | 12% | 26% |
| Wisconsin | 19.65 | 11 | 11.4 | 0.6 | 86% | 24% | 26% |
| Oklahoma | 24.03 | 4 | 10.1 | 1.9 | 37% | 41% | 25% |
| Miami (FL) | 17.34 | 15 | 9.7 | 1.3 | 59% | 29% | 25% |
| Georgia | 23.51 | 5 | 10.8 | 1.2 | 66% | 22% | 21% |
| Notre Dame | 19.75 | 10 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 18% | 18% | 17% |
| Oklahoma State | 19.09 | 13 | 9.8 | 2.2 | 24% | 19% | 13% |
| Virginia Tech | 17.64 | 14 | 9.6 | 2.4 | 19% | 11% | 9% |
| UCF | 13.64 | 21 | 10.4 | 0.6 | 89% | 48% | 9% |
| South Florida | 9.67 | 29 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 79% | 21% | 3% |
| NC State | 14.61 | 19 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 4% | 16% | 3% |
| Wash State | 11.40 | 25 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| USC | 16.38 | 17 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0% | 29% | 1% |
| Auburn | 22.56 | 8 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0% | 7% | 1% |
| Stanford | 16.77 | 16 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 0% | 21% | 1% |
