Over the last year or so, we’ve gotten the occasional question about where to find our historical performance. And given the changes in our site over the past few years, it’s not immediately obvious where to find this. In 2010, I started posting NFL picks sporadically in the wee hours of Sunday morning. By 2011, we had…
A quick errata. We won’t adjust our record for this, but wanted to note it. We blanked on homefield for the Pats-Rams game last week. Rams were the official home team, so they (rotely) got the 2.44-point homfield advantage in our predictions for the week. On a neutral field we had the Pats by 9.6.…
Last week the Wall Street Journal debuted our 2012 picks in their national edition, and plan to run the picks on Fridays for the rest of the season. Those picks are based on Thursday afternoon lines, while the picks we blog are based on Tuesday afternoon lines. That means peformance can vary across the two. In…
Welcome to the 2012 NFL season. The Giants & Cowboys kick things off in just a few hours. We’re back and striving to give you the cleanest look possible at the true ability of NFL teams. As always, we do that by considering context, factoring out chance, and most important, weighing statistics for what they…
The hallmark of a good system is that it does better when more confident. I.e., the more sure you are, the more often you should be right. Far too few people track this. Confidence here is the difference between the M-P implied pointspread and the actual betting line (this difference is also known as the…