The hallmark of a good system is that it does better when more confident. I.e., the more sure you are, the more often you should be right. Far too few people track this. Confidence here is the difference between the M-P implied pointspread and the actual betting line (this difference is also known as the “edge”). We report YTD results for various levels of this difference. The hope is that performance will be positive (>50%) everywhere, and that performance will be better when the edge is larger.
Author: Cade Masseyhttps://opimweb.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/1757/
Cade Massey is a Professor of the Practice at the Wharton School of Business. His research is on judgment under uncertainty, including overconfidence, optimism and under- and over-reaction. He is the co-author of “The Loser’s Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft", co-host of "Wharton Moneyball" on SiriusXM 111, and co-director of Wharton People Analytics.