Welcome to the 2012 NFL season. The Giants & Cowboys kick things off in just a few hours. We’re back and striving to give you the cleanest look possible at the true ability of NFL teams. As always, we do that by considering context, factoring out chance, and most important, weighing statistics for what they predict about future performance, not how they explain the past.
We had a very good 2011 with this approach, hitting 56.8% of all our picks, and a ridiculous 64.7% on “Big Plays” (32 games in which we disagreed with the pointspread by 4 points or more). Will be back shortly with this season’s first picks.
Hope you’ll take a look around our new site, let us know if you have any questions or suggestions, and come back early and often for picks and analysis.