These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…
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Our game grades are intended to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between team performances each week. They control for home field and (expected) strength of opponent, are situationally weighted (i.e. garbage time is de-valued), and look at the statistics most predictive of future performance. In short, the grades measure how teams played in the areas of the game that…
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This week’s projections roll in with the same top 10 teams as last week. That means we were never sold on Michigan and we’re still not sold on Notre Dame. Nothing against the Irish – they crack our power rankings top 10 for the first time this week – but they have a tough road…
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Passing along this week’s projections. For a full write-up see Monday’s Washington Post column. We have 10 teams with >20% of making the playoff. It’s very close to the top 2 from each of the Power-5 conferences, except that the Big-10 has 3 and the Pac-12 only 1. At the top end we see two,…
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Big Plays (6-4-1 YTD) Green Bay +5.5 vs. New Orleans [MP Line: GB +2.6] Arizona +3/+3.5 vs. LA Rams [MP Line: LAR -0.5] (in London) New York Giants +5.5 vs. Seattle [MP Line: SEA -0.8] Other Plays (9-3 YTD) Baltimore +5.5/+6 at Minnesota [MP Line: BAL +3.8] (using Keenum at QB) Break-Even or Better (unofficial…
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These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…
Details
Our game grades are intended to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between team performances each week. They control for home field and (expected) strength of opponent, are situationally weighted (i.e. garbage time is de-valued), and look at the statistics most predictive of future performance. In short, the grades measure how teams played in the areas of the game that…
Details
Big Plays (4-3-1) Minnesota +3 vs. Green Bay [MP Line: MIN -1.3 w/ Bradford, +1.3 w/ Keenum] Washington -10 vs. San Francisco [MP Line: WAS -14.4] NY Giants +11.5 at Denver [MP Line: NYG +4.3] Other Plays (9-3 YTD) none this week Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (6.5-3-0.5 YTD) Philadelphia +3.5 at Carolina [MP Line:…
Details
These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm…
Details
Our game grades are intended to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between team performances each week. They control for home field and (expected) strength of opponent, are situationally weighted (i.e. garbage time is de-valued), and look at the statistics most predictive of future performance. In short, the grades measure how teams played in the areas of the game that…
Details