Our updated CFB ratings can be found (and downloaded!) here. Coming off of a BRUTAL week, where we won just one game. I know it must not inspire much confidence, but all I can do is laugh about it and move on. I remain confident in the process. Weeks such as this are (probabilistically) almost certain…
DetailsAfter an offseason of tirelessly working on improving our already-successful model, we’re ready to unveil our picks for Week 1. Improvements include adjusting for nonlinearities in yards gained per play, doing a better job of distinguishing luck from skill in turnovers, and using a more sophisticated (and Bayesian!) method of adjusting for opponent. The other…
DetailsWell, last week didn’t go as well as we’d have liked. 3-3 on our “Big Plays” and 3-4 on “Other Plays”. Our updated ratings after week 1 can be found here. Interesting to see that despite Clemson beating Georgia in last weekend’s marquee matchup, we still rate Georgia significantly higher. Statistically, Georgia had the better…
DetailsWithout further ado, here is the inaugural version of our weekly college football picks against the spread. Lines taken from Bookmaker as of 10:30am PDT on Wednesday. Some big differences between our numbers and the market. We think a lot of games won’t be quite as lopsided as the market. This is fairly common at…
DetailsApologies for not having the ratings in a more user-friendly form. Wanted to get them posted before the season kicked off. The college football section of our website is still under construction.The ratings can be viewed in spreadsheet form here: 1 Alabama 28.26 2 Georgia 18.07 3 Florida 17.3 4 Texas A&M 16.77 5 LSU…
DetailsFor the first year, Massey-Peabody Analytics will now provide weekly college football ratings and picks. This post will explain the basics of the rating system. Right now, all our college football content will be posted on the blog, but we should have a new section on the site in a week or two that will…
DetailsWhere’d all the square money go?! We are yet again right on the market line – we have the Niners by 3.31, while Vegas has them at 3.5. Not a lot of edge to work with there. Looks like we’ll end the season at 54.3% here and 55.9% in the Wall Street Journal. We have…
DetailsWe hit our Seattle pick last week, moving our YTD record to 51-43-2 (54.3%). Our WSJ picks got bumped (by HGH!) so we are still 33-26-1 (55.9%) there. Full predictions this weekend: SF 24, ATL 22 NE 30, BAL 22 But those mean another weekend without picks, as the market largely agrees. We like SF…
DetailsNo picks last week so our YTD records are still 50-43-2 (53.8%) and 33-26-1 (55.9%) in the WSJ. This week we have a pretty big edge on the Seahawks at Atlanta. One thing we do not consider is the value of the first-round bye. Actually, we consider it but don’t find much evidence of an…
DetailsA quick look at teams’ strength-of-schedule this season. Below we’ve simply averaged the end-of-season MP rating for each team’s 16 opponents. Playoff teams are highlighted in red. A few observations: Most playoff teams come from the easier half of the distribution. While tempting to believe that is because of the easier schedule, these scheduling differences can’t explain…
Details