Here’s the first iteration of our weekly grades. These represent how well a team played, weighting metrics by their predictive value and controlling for expected quality of opponent. # season week tm opp tm score opp score pctile rating score diff 1 2017 1 LSU Brigham Young 27 0 0.995 40.7 2 2017 1…
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We’re going to try to update this week feature weekly. At the moment we’re just dropping our summary in here, showing the 27 teams our models give >2% chance of making the playoff. We organized them by conference because that will be a critical dynamic in the playoff conversation. We include our current power ranking,…
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To forecast win totals we simulate the season a few thousand times, accounting for opponent, game location and byes. In general, we expect better teams to have more wins, obviously. But there is a lot more variation in those expectations than you might expect. We can ask how many games a team *should* win,…
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Here are our power rankings organized by conference (power-5 only – sorry, @PAPN). Decide for yourself, using the old eyeball test, what the conference pecking order is. I’d make it SEC>ACC>PAC12>BIG10>BIG12. Great way to see the distribution of talent in each conference. A few things that jump out to me: – The gaps Alabama…
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Check back soon. We’ll begin blogging by the end of the week!
Apologies for not updating this sooner…been a crazy 10 days out in Vegas doing prop betting. Believe it or not, we do have a play–well, it’s officially going to have to be a lean, but if you can price shop, it’s good enough to be an “Other Play”. We make the Patriots a 4.7-point favorite (and…
DetailsOur current probabilities: Team Conf Alive Conf Champ SB Win NE 87.8% 63.0% 38.0% DAL 64.4% 38.6% 17.1% ATL 63.1% 29.7% 12.8% PIT 45.8% 15.6% 8.5% KC 54.2% 17.2% 8.1% SEA 36.9% 17.0% 7.7% GB 35.6% 14.7% 6.6% HOU 12.2% 4.3% 1.2%
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We didn’t have a single official pick last week–we did have a lean on Seattle, which won–but unfortunately, for the seconds straight week, we don’t see much value on sides. In fact, three of the four games are within a tenth of a point of the market. For those of you who really want SOMETHING to…
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Rufus sends his greetings from Havana. He also sends our take on the weekend via text message (apparently not all communists countries are good with computers)… Finished off a dismal NFL regular season with our best week of the season (by a mile), going 5-1 on our official plays, and losing our one lean…
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