Week 14 Recap:
Our week got off to a bad start when Chicago (+4) was steamrolled by Dallas on Thursday. I don’t know what’s going on with Chicago, but they should not be playing this badly. We rebounded in the early time slot on Sunday, with Carolina (+10) dominating New Orleans, winning 41-10. Our lone Big Play, Kansas City (Pick) was unable to hold an eight-point halftime lead, and with the help of some questionable officiating, lost 17-14 in Arizona. Our perennially struggling Break-Even or Better selections struggled once again: Miami (-2.5/-3) blew a 10-0 lead and lost; Indianapolis (-3.5) pulled off a big-second half comeback to win but not cover. Atlanta (+12.5) did get the cover against Green Bay on Monday night.
Week 14 Closing Line Value
- Kansas City: picked 0, closed -2.75, CLV +2.75
- Dallas: picked +4, closed +3.5, CLV +0.5
- Carolina: picked +10, closed +8.5, CLV +1.5
- *Miami: picked -2.75, closed -3, CLV +0.25
- *Indianapolis: picked -3.5, closed -3, CLV -0.5
- *Atlanta: picked +12.5, closed +13.5, CLV -1.0
Week 15 Picks
Play criteria remain the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Break-Even or Better (52.5-54%). These numbers are conservative, since we regress the MP line towards the market number (but regression amount is based on the closing line, which is more efficient than the line on Thursday). Massey-Peabody lines are determined by taking the difference in team ratings, adding a standard home-field advantage, and adjusting for extra rest (byes and Thursday games). Picks are based on consensus lines as of 4:50pm PST Thursday. Since Vegas Insider seems to lag behind (and just be a consensus of Vegas lines), I’m looking mainly at Pinnacle and Bookmaker.
Big Plays (15.5-11-0.5 YTD)
- Baltimore -14 vs. Jacksonville [MP Line: BAL -18.2]
- Miami +7.5 at New England [MP Line: MIA +5.0]
- Tennessee +2.5 / +3 vs. New York Jets [MP Line: TEN -2.1]
Other Plays (12-8 YTD)
- Carolina -3 / -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay [MP Line: CAR -7.0]
- San Francisco +10 at Seattle [MP Line: SF +8.1]
- Chicago +3 vs. New Orleans [MP Line: CHI +0.0]
- Kansas City -10.5 vs. Oakland [MP Line: KC -14.9]
- Minnesota +7.5 at Detroit [MP Line: MIN +5.5]
Break-Even or Better (10-20.5-0.5 YTD)
- Atlanta +2 vs. Pittsburgh [MP Line: ATL -1.5]
- Dallas +3 / +3.5 at Philadelphia [MP Line: DAL +0.9]
- Cincinnati +1.5 at Cleveland [MP Line: CIN -1.0]
MP Lines (means, not medians) on remaining games
- St. Louis -7.1 vs. Arizona
- Indianapolis -8.2 vs. Houston
- New York Giants -6.8 vs. Washington
- Denver -6.1 at San Diego
- Buffalo +3.0 vs. Green Bay