Bowl Game Recap:
We had an undefeated bowl season, going 5-0 on our official plays and benefitted from two amazing fourth quarter comebacks. In our lone Big Play, Michigan State (+3) rallied from a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat Baylor. And on Christmas Eve, Central Michigan (+3.5) came back from down 35 in the fourth quarter to lose by just one, when they failed to convert a two-point conversion after an epic Hail Mary score on the game’s final play. We had some easier wins as well, with Toledo (-3) beating Arkansas State by 19 and Boise State (+3.5) beating Arizona by eight. UCLA (Pick) almost blew a 25-point second half lead, but managed to hold off Kansas State for a five-point win. Our one lean was Ohio State (+9.5), an outright winner over Alabama in the college football playoffs.
Our official plays are now 50-32-1 on the year (61.0%).
Bowl Game Closing Line Value
- Michigan State: picked +3, closed +2.75, CLV +0.25
- Central Michigan: picked +3.5, closed +3.5, CLV 0.0
- Boise State: picked +3.5, closed +2.5, CLV +1.0
- UCLA: picked 0, closed +1, CLV -1.0
- Toledo: picked -3, closed -3.25, CLV +0.25
- *Ohio State: picked +9.5, closed +7.5, CLV +2.0
National Championship Pick
Our criteria for this pick is the same as it has been all year. Our lines are based purely on our power ratings, adjusted for QB injury, and pace of play. We have an algorithm for the QB injury adjustment, but are a little unsure of whether we should downgrade Ohio State at all, since the decision to start J.T. Barrett over Cardale Jones when Braxton Miller went down was a tough one, and obviously Jones has played like a star in his two starts. At this point I’m not sure if Barrett would be the starter if he was healthy, so I’ve decided not to make the QB injury adjustment (which would have been about 1.3 points). Even if I made the adjustment, we would still have an official play on the same side.
Big Plays (17-11-1 YTD)
- Ohio State +6 vs. Oregon [MP Line: Ohio St. +0.9]
Other Plays finish the year 33-21 (61.1%)
MP Leans finish the year 21-18-2 (53.8%)