Wild Card Recap:
We didn’t have any official plays on last weekend’s action. However, we did have three Break-Even or Better selections, which fared well, going 2-1. Baltimore (+3) won outright in Pittsburgh, Indianapolis (-3/-3.5) blew out Cincinnati, and Dallas (-6.5) came from behind in the second half to win, but failed to cover.
Wild Card Closing Line Value
- *Baltimore: picked +3, closed +3, CLV 0.0
- *Indianapolis: picked -3.25, closed -3.5, CLV +0.5
- *Dallas: picked -6.5, closed -6, CLV -0.5
Divisional Picks:
Play criteria remain the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Break-Even or Better (52.5-54%). These numbers are conservative, since we regress the MP line towards the market number (but regression amount is based on the closing line, which is more efficient than the line on Thursday). Massey-Peabody lines are determined by taking the difference in team ratings, adding a standard home-field advantage, and adjusting for extra rest (byes and Thursday games). Picks are based on consensus lines as of 12:10pm PST Thursday.
Big Plays (19.5-20-0.5 YTD)
- none this week
Other Plays (17-10-1 YTD)
- none this week
Break-Even or Better (15-24.5-0.5 YTD)
- Carolina +10.5 at Seattle [MP Line: CAR +9.4]
MP Lines (means, not medians) on remaining games
- New England -7.4 vs. Baltimore
- Green Bay -5.2 vs. Dallas
- Denver -8.1 vs. Indianapolis
