We continued our mid-season surge last weekend, sweeping both our Big Plays (2-0) and Other Plays (2-0). We didn’t just win, we WON. Stanford blew out Oregon as a 10-point dog, New Mexico entertained thoughts of an upset as a 24.5-point dog before finally succumbing to Boston College by 14, and Syracuse won by 17 as a 6-point underdog. Our MP Leans (2-2) weren’t quite as good. Without a miracle overtime cover by Texas, we would have been 1-3. We’re now 52-47-1 on the season, and 34-16-1 since our miserable 18-31 start.
This was by far our worst week of the season on line moves. Per usual, we were on the wrong side of the Baylor line move, but we didn’t have a single play move toward us, and the average pick moved 0.56 points against us. Still, our model has not changed, and I’m hopeful that this is an anomaly, as we have been consistently beating line moves in previous weeks.
On to the picks! As usual, we don’t account for injuries or matchup factors. Lines widely available as of 9pm EST on Tuesday evening.
Big Plays (17-10 YTD)
- Texas Tech +27 vs. Baylor (neutral field)
Other Plays (20-24-1 YTD)
- Kent State -17.5 vs. Miami (OH)
- Florida +13.5 at South Carolina
- Southern Miss +17 vs. Florida Atlantic
- Syracuse +39 at Florida State
- California +3 at Colorado
- South Alabama +9 at Navy
- Louisiana Tech +17 at Rice
MP Leans (15-13 YTD)
- Tulsa +13.5 vs. Marshall
- Virginia Tech -14.5 vs. Maryland
- Connecticut +15 at Southern Methodist
- Nevada +7.5 vs. San Jose State
- Arizona -13 vs. Washington State