Last week was a bit of a bump in the road for our NFL picks. Our Big Plays went 2-2. Carolina won in San Francisco as a 6-point dog, and Arizona covered our published line of -2.5 by half a point (though this pushed for anyone who played it at -3). Dallas and Green Bay did not even give us a glimmer of hope, though injuries certainly didn’t help us (Seneca Wallace and Sean Lee both hurt early in the games). Our Other Plays went 1-2, and our one Break-Even or Better pick (San Diego +7) lost by a point. Our record for the year stands at 39-30-1 if you include our BEOB; 31-23-1 if you don’t.
There were some line moves both for and against us last week. The bad: Green Bay moved from -1.5 to +1 (a 3.4% move) and Cincinnati moved from -1 to +1 (a 2.3% move). These are small moves, since going across 0 is almost meaningless (push probability of 0.1%) and 1 isn’t a particularly sticky number. The good: Arizona moved all the way across the 3, from -2.5 to -4, a move of 10.5%! Atlanta got bet down from +6 to +3.5 (a 6.7% move), Dallas moved from +7 to +6 (a 5.0% move), and Minnesota moved from +2.5 to +1 (a 3.1% move).
For this week’s picks, lines are widely available as of 10:30am EST on Wednesday morning. As usual, we do not consider injuries (except QB) or matchup factors; the lines are based purely on our ratings, plus home-field advantage, and an adjustment for teams coming off of byes and Thursday games.
Big Plays (9-7-1 YTD)
- Green Bay +6 at New York Giants [MP= +1.6]
Other Plays (22-16 YTD)
- Arizona -6.5 at Jacksonville [MP= -10.3]
- Carolina -2.5 vs. New England [MP= -4.3]
Break-Even or Better (8-7 YTD)
- Oakland +7 at Houston [MP= +5.6]
- Minnesota +12 at Seattle [MP= +10.2]
- Tennessee +3 (-120) vs. Indianapolis [MP= +0.3]
