Week 13 Recap:
Last week was the week of the “U”- acronyms. We had picks on UTSA, UCLA, UNLV, and a lean on UTEP. Our official plays–all Other Plays–went 2-1. UTSA (+9.5) was blown out 45-7 by Western Kentucky, a team we’ve been fading unsuccessfully the past few weeks. UCLA (-3.5) won convincingly over crosstown rival USC, 38-20. UNLV (+10.5), a weekly staple in our picks, finally covered, but lost in heartbreaking fashion. After taking a 35-31 lead with only 15 seconds left, two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties and an apparent error by the clock operator let Hawaii score a game-winning touchdown on the game’s final play.
Our MP Leans went 1-1-1. Fresno State (+7.5) won by 20 points at Nevada, UTEP (+7.5) was on the losing end of a 31-13 score, and Toledo (-7) won by seven to push.
Week 13 Closing Line Value
A bad week in line move value, with most lines closing right where we picked them.
- UTSA: picked +9.5, closed +10, CLV -0.5
- UCLA: picked -3.5, closed -3.5, CLV 0.0
- UNLV: picked +10.5, closed +10.5, CLV 0.0
- *UTEP: picked +7.5, closed +7.5, CLV 0.0
- *Fresno State: picked +7.5, closed +7.25, CLV +0.25
- *Toledo: picked -7, closed -7, CLV 0.0
Week 14 Picks
Pick criteria is the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Leans (53.5-54%). These estimates are based on regressing the MP line toward the market line. The amount of regression is determined by the historical predictive value of the MP number relative to the closing line. This means our cover probabilities will be conservative because lines tend to move our way. MP lines are calculated by taking the difference in power ratings, giving a bonus for teams coming off a bye, adding home field advantage, adjusting for QB injuries, and adjusting for pace of play. Lines are the Vegas Insider consensus lines as of 3:10pm PST Wednesday.
Big Plays (14-11-1 YTD)
- Indiana -2.5 vs. Purdue [MP Line: Indiana -11.7]
- Arkansas State -22.5 vs. New Mexico State [MP Line: Ark St -28.5]
Other Plays (28-20 YTD)
- Kansas +28 at Kansas State [MP Line: Kansas +22.0]
MP Leans (18-16-1 YTD)
- North Carolina -6 vs. N.C. State [MP Line: UNC -11.0]
- Southern Miss +4 vs. UAB [MP Line: So Miss +0.3]
Note we would have Missouri as an Other Play at +3, a Big Play at +3.5, and an MP Lean at +2.5. We make the game Missouri -2.7 but game is off the board at most books due to Arkansas QB injury status.