Week 12 Recap:
Excellent weekend for MP picks, with our official plays going a perfect 4-0. Miami (+7) was up 11 in the fourth quarter and looking like an easy winner before three Denver touchdowns (the last on an interception returned inside the 5). But Miami bailed us out, driving down the field for a late touchdown (converting a 4th-and-3 in the process) and giving us the backdoor cover. Baltimore (+3/+3.5), behind a dominant run game, pulled away from New Orleans, winning by 7. Indianapolis (-13.5/-14) certainly did not play their best game. This pick looked like it had no chance in the first half, and Indy was lucky to not be trailing. Leading by only three at halftime, the Colts ran off 17 unanswered points, and then made a critical goal-line stand to preserve the cover. Washington (+9), behind a rejuvenated rushing attack, almost won outright, despite another poor performance from RG3. We got the cover, but as a Skins fan, it was still a disappointing result. With two chances in the final minutes to drive his team down the field for a go-ahead touchdown, RG3 was not able to get a single first down.
Our unofficial Break-Even or Better selections failed to break even, going 2-2.5-0.5. Dallas (-3/-3.5) won by three, pushing the -3s and losing the -3.5s. Seattle (-6.5) held Arizona without a touchdown in a convincing win. Chicago (-6) rallied from a ten-point halftime deficit to win by eight. Kansas City (-7) lost outright to a previously winless Raiders team, while Atlanta (-3/-3.5) lost a tight game to Cleveland.
Week 12 Closing Line Value
Subpar week in line movement, though a few of the moves in our favor went across key numbers. Official picks moved only .06 points our way on average. BEOB moved a tenth of a point against us on average.
- Miami: picked +7, closed +6.5, CLV +0.5
- Baltimore: picked +3.25, closed +2.75, CLV +0.5
- Indianapolis: picked -13.75, closed -13, CLV -0.75
- Washington: picked +9, closed +9, CLV 0.0
- *Dallas: picked -3.25, closed -4, CLV +0.75
- *Seattle: picked -6.5, closed -7.5, CLV +1.0
- *Chicago: picked -6, closed -4.25, CLV -1.75
- *Kansas City: picked -7, closed -7.25, CLV +0.25
- *Atlanta: picked -3.25, closed -2.5, CLV -0.75
Week 13 Picks
Play criteria remain the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Break-Even or Better (52.5-54%). These numbers are conservative, since we regress the MP line towards the market number (but regression amount is based on the closing line, which is more efficient than the line on Thursday). Massey-Peabody lines are determined by taking the difference in team ratings, adding a standard home-field advantage, and adjusting for extra rest (byes and Thursday games). Picks are based on Vegas Insider consensus lines as of 3:10pm PST Wednesday.
Big Plays (13.5-7-0.5 YTD)
- Chicago +7 at Detroit [MP Line: CHI +2.7]
- Buffalo -2.5/-3 vs. Cleveland [MP Line: BUF -6.2]
- Carolina +2.5/+3 at Minnesota [MP Line: CAR -2.5]
- Atlanta +2.5 vs. Arizona [MP Line: ATL -2.9]
- Miami -6.5 at New York Jets [MP Line: MIA -10.5]
Other Plays (10-5 YTD)
- Baltimore -5.5 vs. San Diego [MP Line: BAL -8.6]
- New Orleans +4.5 at Pittsburgh [MP Line: NO +1.9]
Break-Even or Better (9-16.5-0.5 YTD)
- Tennessee +6 at Houston [MP Line: TEN +4.4]
- Oakland +7 at St. Louis [MP Line: OAK +5.7]
MP Lines (means, not medians) on remaining games:
- Seattle -0.0 at San Francisco
- Indianapolis -10.3 vs. Washington
- New York Giants -3.2 at Jacksonville
- Cincinnati -4 at Tampa Bay
- Green Bay -2.8 vs. New England
- Kansas City -0.2 vs. Denver
- Dallas -4.6 vs. Philadelphia
