Week 14 Recap:
The penultimate week of the football season had the week’s biggest slate of games, but very little betting value, as we posted only three official plays. Our Big Plays went 2-0 on the strength of big second halves. Indiana (-2.5) came back from a 6-point halftime deficit to win by a touchdown and Arkansas State (-22.5) outscored New Mexico State 42-14 in the second half to turn a tight game into a blowout.
Our one Other Play was a loser. Kansas (+28) was throttled by Kansas State, 51-13. Our two unofficial MP Leans both lost (and weren’t close): North Carolina (-6) was blown out at home by neighbor N.C. State, 35-7, and Southern Miss (+4) fell to the soon-to-be-extinct UAB football team, 45-24. Lines weren’t up for the Missouri/Arkansas game at many sportsbooks when we released picks last week, so we did not list Missouri–a 21-14 winner–as a play, but rather gave guidelines as to where it would be a play. When lines became widely available, books posted +3, where it stayed for the next day or so. At that line, we said it would have qualified as an Other Play. That said, it seems a little disingenuous to list it on our official ledger, so it will not count on our record.
Week 14 Closing Line Value
Much better week in terms of line value, with no line moves against us, and only one game not moving our way.
- Indiana: picked -2.5, closed -2.5, CLV 0.0
- Arkansas State: picked -22.5, closed -23.5, CLV +1.0
- Kansas: picked +28, closed +26.5, CLV +1.5
- North Carolina: picked -6, closed -6.5, CLV +0.5
- Southern Miss: picked +4, closed +2.75, CLV +1.25
Week 15 Picks:
With only the Big 12 and American Athletic Conference still playing regular season football, coupled with conference championship games, there aren’t many games this week.
Pick Criteria: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Leans (53.5-54%). These estimates are based on regressing the MP line toward the market line. The amount of regression is determined by the historical predictive value of the MP number relative to the closing line. This means our cover probabilities will be conservative because lines tend to move our way. MP lines are calculated by taking the difference in power ratings, giving a bonus for teams coming off a bye, adding home field advantage, adjusting for QB injuries, and adjusting for pace of play. Lines are the Vegas Insider consensus lines as of 11:05am PST Thursday.
Big Plays (16-11-1 YTD)
- none this week
Other Plays (28-21 YTD)
- Louisiana Tech +11 at Marshall [MP Line: La Tech +6.7]
MP Leans (18-18-1 YTD)
- Alabama -14.5 vs. Missouri [MP Line: Alabama -19.5]
- Ohio State +4 vs. Wisconsin [MP Line: Ohio St +0.5]
MP Lines (means, not medians) on remaining games
- East Carolina -5.6 vs. UCF
- Northern Illinois -9.5 vs. Bowling Green
- Oregon -16.8 vs. Arizona
- Connecticut -11.2 vs. Southern Methodist
- TCU -33.8 vs. Iowa State
- Temple -1.1 at Tulane
- Cincinnati -6.8 vs. Houston
- Baylor -7.1 vs. Kansas State
- Oklahoma -23.6 vs. Oklahoma State
- Florida State -5.2 vs. Georgia Tech
- Boise State -20.5 vs. Fresno State
