Week 13 Recap:
Not a good week for our picks. Our official plays end only one game under .500 at 3-4, but it felt worse. And our Break-Even or Better recommendations continue their remarkably horrid season by going 0-2.
Let’s start with the Big Plays (2-3)…Our week looked to be off to a good start when Chicago (+7) rolled out to a 14-3 lead, but somehow they still managed to get blown out. We were also on the wrong end of a blowout in the Carolina (+2.5/+3) game, losing 31-13 (two blocked punts certainly didn’t help our cause). Miami (-6.5), despite trailing most of the game, had a chance for the late cover, but got a little conservative and ended up settling for a field goal, winning by three. Buffalo (-2.5/-3) looked awful in the first half, but pulled away late, winning 26-10. And Atlanta (+2.5) won convincingly, with Drew Stanton showing why the Carson Palmer injury does matter.
Our Other Plays were a disappointing 1-1. New Orleans (+4.5) got the easy cover in Pittsburgh, but Baltimore (-5.5) was unable to stop the Charger offense in the fourth quarter, blowing a 6-point lead and losing by 1. Both BEOB selections–Tennessee (+6) and Oakland (+7)–lost badly.
Week 13 Closing Line Value
- Chicago: picked +7, closed +7.5, CLV -0.5
- Buffalo: picked -2.75, closed -3, CLV +0.25
- Carolina: picked +2.75, closed +2.75, CLV 0.0
- Atlanta: picked +2.5, closed +1.25, CLV +1.25
- Miami: picked -6.5, closed -6.75, CLV +0.25
- Baltimore: picked -5.5, closed -6.5, CLV +1.0
- New Orleans: picked +4.5, closed +3.5, CLV +1.0
- *Tennessee: picked +6, closed +6.5, CLV -0.5
- *Oakland: picked +7, closed +6, CLV +1.0
Week 14 Picks:
Play criteria remain the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Break-Even or Better (52.5-54%). These numbers are conservative, since we regress the MP line towards the market number (but regression amount is based on the closing line, which is more efficient than the line on Thursday). Massey-Peabody lines are determined by taking the difference in team ratings, adding a standard home-field advantage, and adjusting for extra rest (byes and Thursday games). Picks are based on Vegas Insider consensus lines as of 11:45am PST Thursday.
Big Plays (15.5-10-0.5 YTD)
- Kansas City Pk at Arizona [MP Line: KC -4.4]
Other Plays (11-6 YTD)
- Chicago +4 vs. Dallas [MP Line: CHI +1.8]
- Carolina +10 at New Orleans [MP Line: CAR +8.0]
Break-Even or Better (9-18.5-0.5 YTD)
- Miami -2.5 / -3 vs. Baltimore [MP Line: MIA -4.2]
- Indianapolis -3.5 at Cleveland [MP Line: IND -6.6]
- Atlanta +12.5 at Green Bay [MP Line: ATL +10.7]
MP Lines (means, not medians) on remaining games:
- Cincinnati -2.4 vs. Pittsburgh
- Houston -6.7 at Jacksonville
- Tennessee -0.9 vs. New York Giants
- Detroit -10.1 vs. Tampa Bay
- St. Louis -2.9 at Washington
- Minnesota -4.7 vs. New York Jets
- Denver -9.1 vs. Buffalo
- San Francisco -8.3 at Oakland
- Philadelphia -0.6 vs. Seattle
- New England -4.3 at San Diego
