Apologies for not having picks posted sooner this week. We had a server issue, but it looks like things are better now. Unfortunately, we followed up a losing Week 2 with another losing week. Our Other Plays went 1-2, while our unofficial MP Leans went 0-2.
The good news is that our picks had good value relative to the closing line, a good indication that we just had some bad variance:
- Baylor: picked at +35, closed at +33.5, CLV +1.5
- Central Michigan: picked at +6.5, closed at +4.75, CLV +1.75
- Rutgers: picked at +3.5, closed at +3.5, CLV 0.0
- *Michigan: picked at -31, closed at -32, CLV +1.0
- *Toledo: picked at +11, closed at +9.5, CLV +1.5
This week’s picks are based on consensus lines as of 11:30pm Vegas time on Wednesday night. As always, our ratings are based solely on Massey-Peabody ratings and a standard home field advantage, with an adjustment for pace of play (which I should probably call the Baylor adjustment).
Pick criteria: Big Plays have a 55%+ chance of covering; Other Plays are 54%-55%; MP Leans are 53.5%-54%. Note that these probabilities are based on the historic predictive power of MP lines factoring in the closing line. Since we expect movement in our direction generally, these probabilities are conservative.
Big Plays (2-0 YTD)
- Vanderbilt +22 vs. South Carolina
Other Plays (4-5 YTD)
- Bowling Green +27 at Wisconsin
- Florida Atlantic +4 vs. Wyoming
- Georgia Tech +8 at Virginia Tech
- Washington State +23.5 vs. Oregon
MP Leans (1-4 YTD)
- Wake Forest +2.5 vs. Army
- Memphis -12 vs. Middle Tennessee State