A quick look at our projections heading into Week 5. The pool of serious contenders shrunk a bit more this week – down to 15 with >3% chance. The top stayed the same, with Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma holding the 4 playoff spots and Washington & USC just behind them. Wisconsin gained some ground, and TCU made a big jump. For more detail see our weekly WaPo write-up.
| Team | MP | MP Rank | E(Ws) | E(Ls) | P(L<2) | Conf Champ | Playoff |
| Alabama | 32.86 | 1 | 11.5 | 0.5 | 90% | 68% | 71% |
| Oklahoma | 25.92 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 74% | 61% | 55% |
| Clemson | 26.52 | 2 | 10.9 | 1.1 | 70% | 54% | 49% |
| Ohio State | 26.35 | 3 | 10.3 | 1.7 | 48% | 49% | 34% |
| Washington | 20.59 | 6 | 10.6 | 1.4 | 59% | 37% | 33% |
| USC | 19.58 | 8 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 55% | 42% | 29% |
| Wisconsin | 19.02 | 10 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 63% | 27% | 24% |
| Penn State | 19.73 | 7 | 10.2 | 1.8 | 45% | 13% | 17% |
| TCU | 18.23 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 38% | 23% | 16% |
| Miami (FL) | 17.74 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 40% | 16% | 14% |
| Georgia | 18.73 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 39% | 15% | 11% |
| Virginia Tech | 17.03 | 14 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 23% | 12% | 9% |
| Michigan | 15.69 | 17 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 14% | 6% | 7% |
| Auburn | 19.42 | 9 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 5% | 9% | 4% |
| Oklahoma State | 15.85 | 16 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 7% | 7% | 3% |
