A quick look at the biggest surprise teams of the season so far. We judge this by how much we’ve revised our ratings about them, up or down. UCF, Purdue and North Texas top the list, while Missouri, Brigham Young and Bowling Green bottom it out.
These ratings incorporate our priors, so are “dampened” relative to their pure in-season performance. But that also means we don’t expect any regression-to-the-mean from here – these are our best forecasts for the balance of the season.
This is also a way of seeing the error in our ratings. We know they evolve noisily over the course of the season. Baking this into our sim is one of the key steps we take to make sure our projections reflect the real world.