Last week we were 3-3, including 2-1 on “Big Plays”, making our overall YTD 48-43-2 (52.7%). We were 4-2 in the WSJ, pushing the YTD to 31-26-1 (54.4%). (Week 15, previously unreported, we were 3-2).
Strange week, this one. For 11 of the 13 games on the board, our line is within 1 of the market line. Leaves us only 2 picks for the week. Odd to sync up like that, especially after 8- and 6-game slates the last 2 weeks. Week 17 is strange anyway, with teams strategically sitting players for the playoffs, team incentives varying dramatically, etc. Overall we don’t love week 17 – in fact we generally drop it when we calibrate our models on historical data. Just FYI.
As always, our lines are calculated directly from our power rankings – we don’t consider non-QB injuries, weather, matchups, etc. Lines are from Bookmaker (via sbrodds.com) as of Tuesday, 12/25, 6:00pm CST. “Big Plays” are games with at least 4-point edges, while “Other Plays” are those with 2.5- to 4-point edges.
Big Plays (19-17-1 YTD)
DEN (-16) vs KC [MP= -20.5]
Other Plays (29-26-1 YTD)
DET (+3) vs CHI [MP= +.3]
Three games are currently off the board: OAK@SD, CLE@PIT, TB@ATL. We have them at 9.7, 7.9 and 7.5, respectively.