Last week we went 6-2, making our YTD 45-40-2 (52.9%). We also had another solid week with regard to the market, with our picks beating the closing line by an average of 1.25 points. For the season, our picks have beaten the closing line by an average of 0.83 points per game, a very encouraging sign.
Some familiar faces as well as some new ones this week. We continue the pattern of betting against the Giants and Colts, but a few firsts as well: we like KC (after fading them 6 times this season) and are fading Dallas for the first time (after backing them 3 times). Interestingly, we are on all underdogs, and think that the wrong team is favored in 5 of the 6 games. As detailed earlier in the season, we adjust for teams coming off Thursday games (+0.75). Lines are from Bookmaker (via sbrodds.com) as of Tuesday, 12/18, 5:45pm EST. “Big Plays” are games with at least 4-point edges, while “Other Plays” are those with 2.5- to 4-point edges.
Big Plays (17-16-1 YTD)
BAL (+2.5) vs NYG [MP= -3.3]
CIN (+4) at PIT [MP= -0.8]
DET (+4) vs ATL [MP= -0.3]
Other Plays (28-24-1 YTD)
NO (+3) at DAL [MP= -0.4]
KC (+6.5) vs IND [MP= +3.7]
SF (+1) at SEA [MP= -1.7]
