Following a 3-3 week, we look to wrap up a disappointing regular season for our MP picks on a strong note. For Week 17, we will NOT be posting picks on games where a team is locked into a specific seed and has no incentive to little to no incentive to play its starters. Here are our lines and picks for the week, based on Massey-Peabody ratings, adjusting for HFA and QB injuries. It does not factor in my player-level model. Also note that these are our model lines and are not regressed to the market.
- Kansas City -14.1 vs. Oakland
- New England -11.9 vs. NY Jets
- Philadelphia -6.0 at Washington
- Green Bay -7.0 vs. Detroit
- Houston -3.9 vs. Jacksonville
- PICK: JACKSONVILLE +6.5
- Baltimore -7.1 vs. Cleveland
- Atlanta -3.3 at Tampa Bay
- PICK: ATLANTA -1.5
- Miami -2.3 at Buffalo
- PICK: MIAMI +4.5
- Tennessee -0.3 vs. Indianapolis (assumes healthy Mariota)
- no pick because of Mariota injury
- Pittsburgh -14.3 vs. Cincinnati
- Minnesota -0.6 vs. Chicago
- PICK: CHICAGO +4.5
- LA Chargers -2.5 at Denver
- PICK: DENVER +6.5
- Seattle -16.1 vs. Arizona
- PICK: SEATTLE -13
- LA Rams -17.1 vs. San Francisco
- PICK: LA RAMS -10
2018 Record: 42.5-45-2.5 (48.6%)
