Divisional Lines

Here is my full ensemble of predictions, using both Massey-Peabody numbers and player model numbers, for this weekend’s games. We’ll also give our un-regressed cover probabilities, as well as cover probabilities regressing 50% to the market number. Remember that the lines we give are means, which don’t take into account the distribution. The means and…

Wild Card Lines

Apologies for the late post. Here is my full ensemble of predictions, using both Massey-Peabody numbers and player model numbers for this weekend’s games. We’ll also give our un-regressed cover probabilities, as well as cover probabilities regressing 50% to the market number. Remember that the lines we give are means, which don’t take into account…

2018 NFL Week 17 Picks

Following a 3-3 week, we look to wrap up a disappointing regular season for our MP picks on a strong note. For Week 17, we will NOT be posting picks on games where a team is locked into a specific seed and has no incentive to little to no incentive to play its starters. Here…

2018 NFL Week 16 Picks

Last week we were a disappointing 2-4. Here are our lines and picks for the week, based on Massey-Peabody ratings, adjusting for HFA and QB injuries. It does not factor in my player-level model. Also note that these are our model lines and are not regressed to the market. Tennessee -9.6 vs. Washington LA Chargers…

2018 NFL Week 15 Picks

We continue to hover around .500 after a 2-3 week. Here are this week’s MP lines and picks: Kansas City -3.2 vs. LA Chargers Houston -3.1 at NY Jets PICK: NY JETS +6.5 Denver -7.5 vs. Cleveland PICK: DENVER -2.5 Minnesota -6.4 vs. Miami Oakland -0.1 at Cincinnati PICK: OAKLAND +3 Baltimore -8.9 vs. Tampa…

2018 NFL Week 14 Picks

A 4-1 record last week gets us back over .500. This week we have five plays, but also another four that barely miss the threshold. Here’s what we’ve got: Tennessee -1.4 vs. Jacksonville (uses Kessler at QB) PICK: JACKSONVILLE +5.5 Kansas City -7.3 vs. Baltimore Houston -3.4 vs. Indianapolis Carolina -5.4 at Cleveland PICK: CAROLINA…

2018 NFL Week 13 Picks

Here are this week’s Massey-Peabody picks: New Orleans -5.8 vs. Dallas Indianapolis -0.2 at Jacksonville (uses Kessler at QB) PICK: JACKSONVILLE +4 Pittsburgh -2.7 vs. LA Chargers Carolina -6.0 at Tampa Bay PICK: CAROLINA -3/-3.5 Atlanta -2.7 vs. Baltimore (uses Jackson at QB) Houston -7.2 vs. Cleveland Miami -5.3 vs. Buffalo Chicago -4.0 at NY…

2018 NFL Week 12 Picks

A solid 3-1 week puts us at a half-game under 50% on the year. Not great, but one season isn’t a big sample and probability tells us we will have some years like this. Hopefully some of you were able to get the Rams at -3 and get the push there, but we are grading…

2018 NFL Week 11 Picks

A 2-5 record last week drops us to our worst mark of the season — 47.8%.┬áHere are this week’s MP picks. As always, these picks are based on the Massey-Peabody ratings, adjusted for home-field advantage. Seattle -4.4 vs. Green Bay Carolina -6.4 at Detroit Atlanta -1.8 vs. Dallas BAL/CIN off the board due to Flacco…

2018 NFL Week 10 Picks

We’re coming off a 1-2 week, which leaves under profitability, and just slightly over 50% on the year. Here are this week’s picks. As always, these picks are based on the Massey-Peabody ratings, adjusted for home-field advantage. Pittsburgh -1.8 vs. Carolina PICK: CAROLINA +3.5 NY Jets -11.3 vs. Buffalo PICK: NY JETS -7 Atlanta -6.3…