Here is my full ensemble of predictions, using both Massey-Peabody numbers and player model numbers, for this weekend’s games. We’ll also give our un-regressed cover probabilities, as well as cover probabilities regressing 50% to the market number. Remember that the lines we give are means, which don’t take into account the distribution. The means and medians don’t necessarily match up, especially around key numbers.
- Indianapolis at Kansas City
- MP Line: KC -7.7
- Player Model Line: KC -5.7
- Combo Line: KC -7.1
- Market Line: KC -5.5
- Kansas City -5.5 (54.1% raw cover probability, 52.0% regressed to market)
- No official play
- Dallas at LA Rams
- MP Line: LA -11.7
- Player Model Line: LA -7.7
- Combo Line: LA -10.5
- Market Line: LA -7 -115/-105
- LA -7 -115 (58.8% raw cover probability, 54.9% regressed to non-vig market price of -7 -105)
- PICK: LA Rams -7 -115
- LA Chargers at New England
- MP Line: New England -4.5
- Player Model Line: New England -9.0
- Combo Line: New England -6.3
- New England -4 (55.2% raw cover probability, 52.6% regressed to market)
- No official play, though we think New England is a marginally positive play at -4 -110. If you can get reduced juice, even better.
- Philadelphia at New Orleans
- MP Line: New Orleans -10.8
- Player Model Line: New Orleans -8.6
- Combo Line: New Orleans -10.3
- Market Line: New Orleans -8
- New Orleans -8 (53.1% raw cover probability, 51.5% regressed to market)
- No official play
