Now that the injury situation is clear we can make a final call on tonight’s game. Not that it’s easy to do. We make adjustments for QBs but there is considerable uncertainty, especially with QBs starting for their teams for the first time.
Fortunately we have the Niners ranked much higher than the Bears, in general. So much so that we’re comfortable giving the 3.5 points. Technically we have it an 8-point game – which means a very big edge – but given the uncertainty around QBs we consider it an “Other Play”.
Could the injuries hurt the Niners more than the Bears? Sure. Could the lower-scoring game mean a smaller point difference, even if the relative team strength is the same? Sure. Could those effects account for an 8-point spread dropping to 3.5 points? We’re skeptical.